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Volcafe revises up estimates for Brazilian coffee production

Volcafe revises up estimates for Brazilian coffee production. In its new forecast, the Swiss trader pegs coffee production in 2015-16 at 51.9 million bags, up 2.4 million bags from a previous estimate issued in February.

The upgrade reflects an increased expectation for the arabica harvest, lifted by 2.5m bags to 35.5m bags, while the robusta (conillon) output was slightly downgraded to 16.4m bags.

The forecast is based on a crop tour in Brazil’s main coffee areas, which covered 14,000 kilometres between March and April, and analysed more than 3,000 farms.

According to Volcafe, farmers – encouraged by the higher prices – have invested more time and money in their coffee trees.

“In 2015, the situation had changed significantly, with higher prices supporting input use, and better precipitation resulting in an amazing rebound” in output prospects, Volcafe said.

Although last year’s drought meant reduced vegetation, which will be “a limiting factor to output for the 2015 crop, we believe that better yields have compensated” the report also stated.

In its first official forecast, released in January, Brazil’s crop supply agency – Conab pegged this year’s crop at 44.1-46.6 million bags, almost unchanged on year.

The Brazilian Institute of Geography and Statistics said in its latest monthly report that the country is expected to produce 42.7 million bags of coffee as compared to a previous forecast of to 43.9 million bags.

Fundação Procafé sees the 2015-16 crop at 40.3-43.25 million bags.