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Usda forecasts world coffee production for 2021/22 down 11m bags to 164.8 million

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WASHINGTON, US – The United States Department of Agriculture Foreign Agricultural Service (Usda) – in its “Coffee: World Production, Markets, and Trade” report, released on June 21st – forecasts world coffee production for 2021/22 11.0 million bags down from the previous year to 164.8 million, due primarily to Brazil’s combined effect of Arabica trees entering the off‐year of the biennial production cycle and a weather‐related shortfall.

As a result of lower output, global ending inventories are expected to drop 7.9 million bags to 32.0 million. World coffee bean exports are expected down 4.8 million bags to 115.5 million as rising 1.8 million bags to 165.0 million, with the largest gains in the European Union, the United States, and Brazil. Coffee prices, as measured by the International Coffee Organization (ICO) monthly composite price index, have trended higher since June 2019.

Brazil Arabica output is forecast to drop 14.7 million bags to 35.0 million compared to the previous season due to a combination of factors. The majority of producing areas are in the off‐year of the biennial production cycle, resulting in lower production potential for the upcoming crop. Additionally, adverse weather conditions lowered yields as drought and high temperatures in major coffee growing regions affected blossoming as well as fruit setting and development.

There were also reports that many growers pruned their trees at above‐average rates in response to last year’s record crop, thus lowering yields. The bulk of the Arabica harvest started in May and June. The Robusta harvest is forecast to continue expanding to reach a record 21.3 million bags, up 1.1 million. Good rainfall volumes aided fruit development in the major producing states of Espirito Santo, Rondonia, and Bahia. Most of the Robusta harvest started in April and May.

The combined Arabica and Robusta harvest is forecast down 13.6 million bags to 56.3 million.

Despite lower output, consumption is expected to continue rising to a record 23.7 million bags. With reduced supplies, bean exports are expected to drop 9.0 million bags to 32.0 million and ending stocks are forecast to decline 2.5 million bags to 1.5 million.

Vietnam production is forecast to rebound 1.8 million bags to 30.8 million following last year’s dry growing conditions. With Robusta accounting for over 95 percent of total output and Robusta prices trending higher over the last 12 months, many growers were motivated to boost yields by incurring irrigation costs during the normally drier period of January through March.

Farmers continue to intercrop coffee with fruits, such as avocado and durian, to increase their incomes. Bean exports are forecast to jump 3.0 million bags to 26.0 million, lowering inventories slightly.

Colombia Arabica production is forecast by Usda 200,000 bags lower to 14.1 million although output remains strong on favorable growing conditions. The National Federation of Coffee Growers of Colombia (FEDECAFE) estimates that nearly 85 percent of coffee area is now planted with rust resistant varieties, compared to just 35 percent in 2008/09 when adverse weather conditions caused rust to proliferate, lowering output by one‐third.

Since then, yields have increased about 30 percent due largely to the renovation program that replaced older, lower‐yielding trees with rust‐resistant varieties.

The program also reduced the average age of coffee trees from 15 to 6.9 years, further boosting yields.

Ethiopia is forecast to produce 7.6 million bags (60 kilograms) of Arabica coffee in 2021/22 and is the world’s third‐largest Arabica producer behind Brazil and Colombia. Coffee production is vital to the Ethiopian economy and approximately 15 million people are directly or indirectly involved in the industry. In 2020, coffee exports totaled $800 million and accounted for over 25 percent of total exports. These funds play an important role in the economy because the Ethiopian Birr is not a convertible currency and U.S. dollars are needed for transactions related to imports and other foreign debt obligations. Coffee bean exports are seen down 100,000 bags to 12.4 million.

Indonesia production is forecast to slip a modest 100,000 bags to 10.6 million, with most of the loss occurring in Robusta output. Robusta production is expected at nearly 9.4 million bags on mostly favorable growing conditions in the lowland areas of Southern Sumatra and Java, where approximately 75 percent is grown.

Heavy rains in northern Sumatra, where approximately 60 percent of Arabica output is derived, are expected to lower yields, with output down slightly to almost 1.3 million bags. Ending stocks are expected to halve to just 900,000 bags to sustain rising consumption and strong exports.

India production is forecast to add 300,000 bags to 5.4 million on higher Robusta output in Karnataka, the largest coffee producing State. Arabica is forecast modestly lower as it enters the off‐year of the biennial production cycle. Bean exports are forecast unchanged at 3.7 million bags.

Total output for Central America and Mexico is forecast down slightly by 400,000 bags to 17.4 million as slight gains in Guatemala, Nicaragua, and Mexico are more than offset by Honduras, which is forecast to drop 700,000 bags to 5.5 million. Honduras is the dominant producer in the region, accounting for approximately one third of output.

Unfortunately, weather conditions following hurricane Eta and Iota caused leaf rust to jump from low single‐digits to 15‐25 percent, depending on the region, lowering yields. Bean exports for the region are forecast to lose 300,000 bags to 14.4 million mainly due to lower exportable supplies in Honduras. Nearly half of the region’s exports are destined for the European Union, followed by about one‐third to the United States.

European Union imports are forecast down 2.5 million bags to 42.5 million and account for nearly 40 percent of the world’s coffee bean imports. Top suppliers include Brazil (34 percent), Vietnam (24 percent), Honduras (8 percent), and Colombia (6 percent). Ending stocks are expected to drop 2.1 million bags to 14.0 million in order to sustain a modest increase in consumption.

The United States imports the second‐largest amount of coffee beans and is forecast down 300,000 bags to 24.2 million. Top suppliers include Brazil (30 percent), Colombia (21 percent), Vietnam (11 percent), and Nicaragua (5 percent). Ending stocks are forecast to slide 700,000 bags to 5.7 million.

Revised 2020/21 World coffee production

World coffee production is revised up 300,000 bags from the December 2020 estimate to 175.8 million.

  • Brazil is up 2.0 million bags to 69.9 million, largely due to updated data for Arabica output.
  • Uganda is revised 1.2 million bags higher to 6.0 million largely due to increased area.
  • Peru is lowered 1.1 million bags to 3.4 million on updated area and yield data.
  • Cote d’Ivoire is reduced 700,000 bags to 1.1 million on lower yields.

World coffee bean exports are raised 2.8 million bags to 120.3 million.

  • Brazil is raised 4.0 million bags to 41.0 million on higher exportable supplies.
  • Peru is down 900,000 bags to 3.3 million on reduced exportable supplies.
  • Vietnam is lowered 800,000 bags to 23.0 million on slower shipments to the European Union and United States.
  • Cote d’Ivoire is reduced 600,000 bags to 900,000 bags on lower exportable supplies.

World ending stocks of coffee are lowered 1.4 million bags to 39.9 million.

  • Brazil is lowered 1.3 million bags to 4.0 million on higher shipments.
  • European Union is revised 1.6 million bags higher to 16.1 million on updated data from the European Coffee Federation.
  • The United States is down 600,000 bags to 6.4 million on lower‐than‐anticipated consumption.