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Concerns about supply keep domestic Arabica prices on the rise in Brazil, reports Cepea

Brazil

SAO PAULO, Brazil – The domestic prices for Arabica coffee are rising sharply in the Brazilian market this month. Between Oct. 29 and Nov say Cepea in its latest report. 16, the CEPEA/ESALQ Index for Arabica coffee type 6 (delivered to São Paulo city) rose by 5.24%, closing at BRL 1,322.11 (USD 240.73)/60-kilo bag on Nov. 16, the new nominal record in the series of Cepea (which began in 1996).

Domestic prices have been influenced by the valuation of Arabica coffee abroad, which is linked to technical movements (because of the due date for the December/21 Future) and concerns about the world supply in the coming months.

On the one hand, the resumption of economic activities is expected to favor coffee consumption worldwide, but on the other hand, logistic issues in several countries have delayed shipments, leading some countries to use certified stocks.

Uncertainties related to the Brazilian production of Arabica coffee in the 2022/23 season are also concerning agents.

In Brazil, despite the positive biennial cycle in the coming season (2022/23) and the return of rains in October, the drought observed until September and the frosts in late July are expected to have reduced the productive potential of coffee crops.

Itaú BBA estimates the output between 60 and 64 million bags, and Rabobank, at 63.5 million bags. The confirmation of the La Niña phenomena – which may influence rainfall during fruitlet set and beans filling – is also concerning agents.

In that context, many arabica sellers have been away from the national spot market. Despite the sharp valuation in the recent days, the number of deals was low.

Robusta

The prices for Robusta coffee are on the rise in Brazil too, having surpassed BRL 800/bag. On Nov. 16, the CEPEA/ESALQ Index for the type 6, screen 13, Espírito Santo, closed at BRL 804.27 (USD 146.44)/bag, 4.3% higher than that on Oct. 29. Still, liquidity has been low, since farmers have made cash flow this season.

Crops

The rains from recent weeks have favored flower set in most crops in Espírito Santo and in Rondônia. If the weather continues favorable, the robusta harvest in the 2022/23 season is expected to be good.

Exports

Brazilian coffee exports increased in October, totaling 3.4 million bags (considering green, roasted and soluble beans), according to Cecafé, 7.4% up from the volume shipped in September. On the other hand, this amount is 23.8% lower than that exported in Oct/20, reflecting both the lower crop in Brazil (2021/22) and logistic issues.