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Conab’s third estimate sees 2015-2016 crop at 42.15 million bags

MILAN – In its third official estimate for 2015-16, released on Tuesday, Brazil’s National Supply Company (Conab) – the supply arm of the country’s Ministry of agriculture and food (MAPA) – has revised downwards its forecast for the 2015-2016 coffee crop.

The new estimate pegs harvest at 42.15 million bags, 4.8 percent (2.1 million bags) down from the forecast issued in June. This is a 7 percent reduction from the figure of 45.34 million bags reported for 2014-2015.

The Arabica crop is pegged at 31.3 million bags (74.2 percent of the total output), down 3.1 percent on year. Significant losses are reported in Cerrado Mineiro and Sao Paulo, where production is down 26.8 and 16.4 percent respectively from 2014.

Conab September 2015

Robusta (Conilon) coffee output totals 10.9 million bags, down 16.7 percent from the previous coffee season.

This reduction is attributable to lower production in the state of Espirito Santo – Brazil’s main Robusta producer – where the crops were affected by drought, high temperatures and heat stroke in December 2014, January and February 2015.

Conab will issue its fourth (final) estimate for 2015-2016 in December.