Thursday 09 February 2023

Conab sees coffee production in Brazil for 2023/2024 at 55 million bags, up 8% on year

Productivity for the 2023 coffee crop is forecast at 28.9 bags/ha, up by 4.4% from the 27.7 bags/ha recorded in 2022, but well below a record level of almost 33.5 bags/ha reached in 2020. Arabica productivity will rebound to 24.8 bags/ha, a 10.2% increase over last year, but still much lower than the peaks reached in 2020 and 2018. The productivity for Robusta is seen at 44.4 bags/ha, down from a record level of 46.8 bags/ha in 2022

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MILAN – Brazil’s Conab expects coffee production to reach this year a total of 54.9 million bags, or a 7.9% increase over CY 2022/23. More in detail, the country’s National Supply Company, depending from the Ministry of Agriculture and Supply (MAPA), sees Arabica output for CY 2023/24 (July-June) at 37.4 million bags, up 14.4% from the previous cycle.

On the Robusta side of things, referred to in Brazil as conilon, production is set to decrease by 3.8% to 17.5 million bags.

The area planted with coffee will expand slightly to 2.258 million hectares (+0.8%), of which 1.9 million ha in production, up by 3.3%, and 355,500 ha for formation, down by 11%.

Productivity for the 2023 coffee crop is forecast at 28.9 bags/ha, up by 4.4% from the 27.7 bags/ha recorded in 2022, but well below a record level of almost 33.5 bags/ha reached in 2020.

Arabica productivity will rebound to 24.8 bags/ha, a 10.2% increase over last year, but still much lower than the peaks reached in 2020 and 2018.

The productivity for Robusta is seen at 44.4 bags/ha, down from a record level of 46.8 bags/ha in 2022.

Brazil’s Arabica coffee plant development and production normally follow a two-year cycle, with smaller crops in odd-numbered years as the plants grow the branches that will bear the usually much bigger crop produced in even-numbered years.

But frosts and droughts in 2021 hit the development of the plants and the Arabica crop was only slightly bigger in 2022 than the previous year.

Arabica production (source: Conab)
Robusta production (source: Conab)

Brazil had a record harvest of Robusta in 2022, but unhelpful weather last year affected plant development and the crop this year will be a bit smaller than last year, according to Conab.

Total coffee production (source: Conab)

The output in the state of Minas Gerais, Brazil’s biggest producer of Arabica, is expected to rebound by over 25% to 27.49 million bags, with productivity at 24.8% bags/ha, up 15% from the previous cycle.

Sul e Centro-Oeste (+37.3%) and Triângulo, Alto Paranaiba e Noroeste (+49.6%) will boost production to 13.2 and 6.3 million bags respectively. Norte, Jequitinhonha e Mucuri will see a slight increase, while production in Zona da Mata, Rio Doce e Central will decrease by 2.4% following an on-year in 2022.

Espirito Santo is the only major producer where the output is set to fall. Overall production is seen at 14.553 million bags, down 13% on year. The Robusta crop, of which this state is the biggest producer, will drop to 11.46 million bags, or a 7.3% decrease over year. Following a bumper crop in 2022, Arabica will fall sharply to little less of 3.1 million bags (-29.1%).

Sao Paulo will experience a 7.7% increase to 4.7 million bags.

Production in Bahia will stay flat (+0.6%) at 3.6 million bags, with a further increase of the crop of Robusta to 2.4 million bags (+2.6%) and a slight decrease in the Arabica crop, down 3.1%.

Production in Rondonia is nearing 3 million bags, or a 5.1% increase over year. Finally, Parana will rebound strongly (+47.2%) to 733,00 bags.

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