MILAN – Comexim, one of the largest exporters of Brazilian coffee, is lowering its forecast for the current 2019/2020 crop from the original estimate of 58 million bags to 56.8 million bags, being 38 million or arabica and 18.8 million bags of conilon. The company also revised upwards its estimate for the 2018/19 crop to 64.5 million bags output, divided between 48 million bags of arabica and 16.5 million bags of conilon – an overall 1.5 million bags bigger crop than previously estimated.
“One important point to mention is that we initially thought the quality was not very challenging – as it was unfair to compare to a near perfect one, an exception to the rule, that we had the year before – but we were proved to be wrong on this matter” says Comexim in a report signed by Rodrigo Costa.
“The 50% rally experienced in New York from October to December uncovered coffees being held not only from one crop but for three and for that reason the carry-in from previous cycles had to be adjusted, also to accommodate the 61.62 million bags shipped from July 2018 until December 2019, or 41.43 on 18/19 crop year plus 20.19 on the first six months of the 19/20 season, and internal consumption of 30 million bags in eighteen months”.
“With all that being said, we brought in to 19/20 a total inventory of 8.16 million bags, mostly increased by lower consumption numbers from previous years (less 4 million bags in the past three seasons and 2.5 million bags on prior ones), when the country had negative economic growths and the population unfortunately suffered with employment losses and lower buying power in general”.
Looking now at the 20/21 crop, Comexim says “the late arrival of rains though, as well as high temperature and the below average rainfall during October and November – after the July frost that also affected some areas – shaved down the once expected 70+ million bags crop”.
Paraná, São Paulo, South of Minas and even Cerrado had farms impacted by the cold temperature and after by the very high temperatures that provoked leaves’ losses (falling) and lower buds’ development – even though precipitation has normalized afterwards.
“With that in mind, our initial forecast for 20/21 is for a crop of 67.7 million bags, with a slight record for arabica, or 48.25 million bags (250 thousand more than 18/19) and also for conilon, 19.45 million bags (650 thousand bags more than 19/20)” concludes the report from Comexim.