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MILAN – Coffee markets continue to navigate by sight: even the first 10 days of September – with the Brazilian harvest now complete – have failed to establish a clear trend. The month opened with sharp declines: London lost 8.6% in the first two days, plummeting to $4,399 on 2 September from a high of $4,878 reached on 27 August.
After the long Labor Day weekend, New York fell 4.1% on 2 September, closing the first session of the month at 370.35 cents.
The rest of the week flew by without too many surprises. The ICE Arabica December contract fluctuated within a narrower range, closing last Friday at 373.65 cents.
The ICE Robusta November contract rose above the $4,400 threshold mid-week, but fell back into negative territory over the next two sessions, closing the week at $4,309.
However, just when the coffee markets seemed to be settling down, prices surged again in the first session of this week. On Monday 8 September, the benchmark in New York gained 3%, rising to 384.85 cents. In London, the main contract also increased by 2.8%, closing at $4,430.
There was a new bearish interval in Tuesday 9th’s session, with the two exchanges down 0.8% and 1.3% respectively, mainly due to a recovering dollar. However, it should be noted that ICE Arabica reached a four-month intraday high of 393 cents during trading.
Finally, yesterday, Wednesday 10 September, coffee futures rose again, with New York and London up 1.3% and 2.4% closing at 386.90 cents and $4,477 respectively.
Once again, it was the weather that pushed prices up yesterday, with a new report from Somar Meteorologia showing that there was virtually no rain last week in the state of Minas Gerais, Brazil’s largest producer of Arabica coffee.
Analysts say that, given supply problems, US tariffs and low stock levels, we should expect high levels of volatility in the coming weeks and months. Meanwhile, ICE Arabica certified stocks fell to 679,548 bags on Wednesday — the lowest level for 16 months.
It is time to take stock of the 2025/26 Brazilian harvest, which is now almost complete. Analysts generally agree that, while Robusta production has reached record levels, Arabica output has been disappointing and below expectations.
Conab’s official estimate, released last week, was 471,000 bags lower than in May. The significant cut in the estimate of Arabica production (-1.83 million bags) is only partially offset by the upward revision of Robusta production (+1.4 million bags).
The 2025/26 harvest is now estimated to be 55.2 million bags, which is an increase of 1.8% compared to the 2024/25 harvest. Arabica production is pegged at 35.15 million bags, a decrease of 11.2%.
Robusta production, on the other hand, has reached an unprecedented level of 20.1 million bags, or a 37.2% increase. Conab’s official data are traditionally underestimated due to different calculation criteria and strong pressure from producer lobbies.
The authoritative private analyst Safras & Mercato has revised its Arabica estimate downwards by 6%. Production for 2025/26 is now forecast at 63.35 million bags: 3% less than last year. The Arabica harvest is seen at 38.05 million bags, which is 14% less than in 2024/25, while the Robusta harvest is estimated at a record 25.3 million bags.
StoneX has also cut its estimate for this year’s harvest by 3.4%, to 62.3 million bags. This is 5.4% less than the 2024/25 harvest. The Arabica harvest is estimated at 36.5 million bags, which is an 18.4% decrease compared to last year. Conversely, the Robusta harvest has increase by 21.9% to a record 25.8 million bags.
Itaú BBA estimates this year’s production at 62.8 million bags. Following disappointing results from the last few weeks of harvesting, the Brazilian bank has revised its Arabica forecast downwards to 38.7 million bags: an 11.5% decrease on the previous year, and 2.2 million bags below the USDA figures used as a basis for its forecast. The estimate for the Robusta harvest remains unchanged at 24.1 million bags.
