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Brazil: Conab has cut its official estimate for the 2021/22 coffee crop to 46.9 million bags

Brazil conab estimate

MILAN – Brazil ‘s National Supply Company Conab cut Tuesday its official estimate for the 2021/22 coffee crop by almost 2 million bags to 4-year low of 46.9 million bags, or a 25.7 million decrease from last year’s bumper crop of 63.1 million bags. Arabica production is seen down to a 12-low of 30.7 million bags, due to an off-year in the biannual production cycle of Arabicas.

Drought conditions in key stages of crop development exacerbated a decline in yields. This would mark a 36.9% year-on-year drop.

On the other hand, Robusta coffee production is expected to reach a new all-time high of 16.1 million bags from a previous forecast of 15.4 million bags, thanks to favourable weather conditions and good agricultural practices.

Productivity will fall 22% to 26 bags per ha. The yield of Arabica coffee is seen 33% down to 21.6 bags per ha. Robusta productivity is forecast to reach a new high of 42.9 bags per ha, up 10.6% on year.

Coffee area is estimated at 2.214 million ha, up 2.4%, but the productive area will shrink by 4.4% to 1.8 million ha due to extensive pruning.

A sharp decrease in production is seen by Conab in most states, with the exception of Espirito Santo.

Coffee crop in the state of Minas, Brazil ‘s largest producer of Arabicas, will fall sharply (-38.1%) to 21.44 million bags.

Production in Espirito Santo will increase by 1.2% to 14.13 million bags thanks to a record Robusta crop of 11.14, up 21.2% on year, while Arabica production will see a 37.3% decrease to 2.97 million bags.

Sao Paulo, the second largest producer of Arabica, will harvest 4 million bags, down 35.1% from last year. Bahia is seen down by 13% to 3.47 million bags. Rondonia and Parana will record a 13% and 7.3% decrease respectively.

The flowering period for the 2022/23 crop begins this month, and a lack of rain may reduce coffee tree flowering and further curb coffee yields.

According to reports, water availability in the soil in Minas Gerais is already at critical levels between 0% and 30% when the minimum level for crop development is 60%.