In the tropical Pacific Ocean, the El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) remains neutral. A neutral ENSO period indicates that the tropical Pacific Ocean is not shifting the odds towards a significantly wetter or drier period for Australia.
When ENSO is in a neutral phase weather extremes can and do occur due to the influence of secondary or local factors.
Most indicators of ENSO, such as sea surface temperatures, the 90-day Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) and the trade winds are within the ENSO-neutral range. However, cloudiness near the Date Line continues to show a weak La Niña-like pattern.
All climate models indicate that the Pacific Ocean is likely to remain ENSO neutral through the southern summer and autumn.
Model outlooks that span the autumn period tend to have lower skill than outlooks made at other times of the year, therefore outlooks beyond May should be used with caution.
The Indian Ocean Dipole has little influence on Australian climate during the months from December to April.
