Friday 09 December 2022

Weather and positive biennial cycle boost the Brazilian crop

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The Brazilian production of arabica coffee in the 2016/17 crop, whose harvesting ended in early September, was high and of good quality, favored by the weather and the positive biennial cycle of the crop. Regarding robusta, the hot and dry weather damaged crops in Espírito Santo and Rondônia, reducing production of this variety.

According to data from Conab (National Company for Food Supply), released in late September, the volume produced in the 2016/17 crop was only lower than in the 2012/13 season, when it reached a record.

Conab indicates that Brazil may finish the 2016/17 season with 49.64 million 60-kilo bags of coffee, which means 14.8% higher than in the 2015/16 crop.

Of this total, 41.29 million bags are of arabica – 28.8% up compared to last season – and 8.35 million bags, of robusta – 25.3% down compared to the previous season. However, some agents expect different numbers from Conab data.

In general, however, the sector agrees that the current arabica season has better quality and larger volume than last season’s. For the next crop (2017/18), however, weather conditions are concerning.

According to weather agencies, rains may delay in most central-southern region, damaging flowering events and crop management in the next season.

Regarding robusta, in Espírito Santo, harvesting was estimated at nearly 5 million 60-kilo bags by Conab, reasonable, according to agents consulted by Cepea. Some batches had quality problems, which could be observed in late September.

In Rondônia, Conab estimates production at 1.7 million bags, but Cepea collaborators indicate that the harvesting will not surpass one million bags.

Coffee quality was affected by the weather. For the next robusta season, expectations are for an even lower crop. Significant flowering events have not been observed at crops yet and, thus, the development cycle has already been damaged.

In September, the CEPEA/ESALQ Index of arabica, type 6, hard cup or better (delivered in São Paulo city), increased 3.42%, closing at 503.07 BRL (154.74 USD) per 60-kilo bag on September 30.

For robusta, sellers’ retraction pushed up prices at the end of the month. The CEPEA/ESALQ Index of robusta type 6, screen 13 (Espírito Santo), closed at 459.63 BRL (141.38 USD) per 60-kilo bag on September 30, 8.9% up compared to August 31.

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