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MILAN – Coffee futures saw more moderate price fluctuations during November. In New York, the ICE Arabica March contract closed the first session of the month, on 3 November, at 386.70 cents and ended on 28 November at 381.20 cents, fluctuating between a monthly high of 399.30 cents, on 11 November (422.70 cents on the same day on the front month), and a low of 369.45 cents on 21 November.
In London, the contract for January delivery reached its monthly high on 3 November, closing at $4,693, and a monthly low of $4,223 on 14 November, ending the month, last Friday at $4,565.
The market was affected by the weather in Brazil and Vietnam, but was also influenced by political developments in the US and the European Union.
In Europe, EU leaders agreed to postpone and further relax the rules introduced by the European Union Deforestation Regulation (EUDR).
This eased tensions in the markets, given the serious repercussions that such a strict and complex law would have had on the entire global supply chain.
This eased tensions in the markets, given that such a strict and complex law, in its original form, would have had repercussions for the entire global supply chain.
In the United States, the White House’s decision to lift tariffs on around 100 products, including coffee, and the subsequent announcement of the removal of the 40% punitive tariffs on Brazilian food products, including green coffee, allowed the US industry to breathe a sigh of relief after months of tension, which had further inflated retail prices.
Returning to last Friday’s session, both markets posted marginal gains. Ice Arabica and Ice Robusta rose by 0.40% and 0.6% respectively. Prices were supported by the strengthening of the Brazilian real against the dollar, which rallied to a 1-week high against the dollar, discouraging export sales by Brazilian coffee producers, and triggering some short covering.
Markets continue to monitor weather conditions in Vietnam, where Typhoon Koto, the 15th named storm to enter the East Sea in 2025, unexpectedly weakened and was downgraded to a tropical depression earlier than forecast.
The tropical depression is expected to move southwestward at around 5 km/h. By 1:00 AM on December 2, it will be approximately 200 kilometers east of the coastal areas of Gia Lai and Dak Lak provinces, report local media.
At that point, it is forecast to drop to level 6 with gusts at level 8. In the following 12 hours, the system will likely move further southwest at about 10 km/h and weaken into a low-pressure area offshore from Gia Lai–Dak Lak, according to VNDMS.
