Share your coffee stories with us by writing to info@comunicaffe.com.
MILAN – The United States Department of Agriculture’s (USDA) Foreign Agricultural Service has slightly revised downwards its estimate for Vietnam’s coffee production for MY 2025/26 (October-September). The harvest is now expected to be 30.8 million bags, down from an official estimate of 31 million in June last year, but still up 6.2% from MY 2024/25.
The Robusta production forecast has been lowered by USDA to 29.6 million bags, up 5.7% (1.6 million) from last year. Meanwhile, the estimate for the Arabica harvest has been revised slightly upwards to 1.2 million bags, compared to 1 million bags in MY2024/25.
Higher coffee prices have encouraged farmers to increase investments in coffee farming, including fertilizer use, says the report.
Favourable weather conditions, characterized by abundant rainfall, have supported coffee cultivation and are expected to drive higher yields. Some experts predict coffee production will increase by up to 10% in MY 2025/26.
Additionally, the Plant Production and Protection Department (PPPD) reports reduced damage from pests and diseases, such as mealybugs, branch dieback, and rust disease, compared to the previous year. Although mosquito bug damage has slightly increased, the overall impact of pests and diseases on coffee cultivation has declined.
Unfortunately, Typhoons Kalmaegi and extreme heavy rains during the harvest stage damaged coffee yields in some production areas, particularly in the Highland Central region.
Total coffee area was 732,000 hectares with total harvested area at 677,000 hectares in 2024 according to Vietnam’s National Statistics Office (NSO). PPPD estimates total coffee area in 2025 will be 730,000 hectares, and projects that coffee area will increase slightly to 731,000 hectares in 2026.
Total planting area in the Central Highland, the main coffee producing region, reached 676,500 hectares in 2025, with an expected production of 1.9 million tons (MT). So far only 74,500 hectares have been replanted/renewed in this region under the Coffee Replanting Program out of a planned 91,000 hectares.
The Replanting Program set a target of replanting 200,000 hectares of coffee between 2014-2025, one-third of the coffee area in this region. The Replanting Program is one of the Government’s primary policies for providing credit and technology to farmers to replace old low yield coffee trees with new varieties.
Exports are expected to reach 27.3 million bags, up from 25.2 million in 2024/25, according to the report from USDA. Green coffee shipments are forecast to grow to 24 million bags, up from 22.35 million in the previous year. Sales of soluble coffee are expected to reach 2.6 million bags (compared to 2.35 million in 2024/25), while sales of roasted coffee are expected to reach 700,000 bags (compared to 500,000).
On May 22, 2025, Vietnam was categorized as a “low risk” country under the European Union Deforestation Regulation (EUDR). This designation allows coffee exported from Vietnam to the European Union (EU) to undergo a simplified due diligence process, with a compliance inspection rate of one percent.
Germany remained the largest importer in MY 2024/25, importing approximately 3.2 million bags of Vietnam coffee (+6%). Germany is followed by Italy, Spain, Japan and the United States. While exports to Germany grew, other major importers reduced purchases. Exports to Japan fell 20% compared to the previous marketing year.
Vietnam exported approximately 1.5 million bags to the United State in MY 2024/25, down 3% from MY 2023/24. On November 14, 2025, The United States announced a reduction in tariffs on coffee and certain other agricultural products. This may support increased imports in coffee from Vietnam in MY2025/26.
Exports to Mexico, Algeria and Netherland recorded the highest growth rate, increasing 1,244%, 66%, and 29% respectively. In contrast, exports to Asia countries declined significantly, with exports to Indonesia dropping 56%, Philippines 37%, Thailand 27%, and Chian 15%.
Domestic consumption is expected to grow to 4.9 million bags. Vietnam’s domestic coffee market is experiencing significant growth, driven by a burgeoning cafe culture, rising incomes, and a young, urban population eager for new coffee experiences. While exports remain the industry’s primary focus, the local market is growing in importance.
Annual per capita coffee consumption is growing rapidly and is projected to reach 3 kilograms this year. Busy lifestyles and longer working hours are boosting demand for instant coffee. According to Knowledge Sourcing Intelligence report, Vietnam’s instant coffee market is projected to grow at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 12%, totaling $731 million by 2028.
Domestic coffee consumption in 2025 was supported by the growing local demand and an increase in international visitors, concludes USDA.
