Thursday 01 December 2022

USDA cuts its coffee production estimates for Brazil and Colombia

Brazil’s output for the current (July-June) 2022/23 crop year is estimated at 62.6 million bags, 1.7 million bags than in the latest official estimate issued in June. USDA also revised its coffee production estimate down to 11.8 million bags, a 9.2 percent decrease from a previous forecast of 13.0 million bags

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MILAN – In a new series of reports issued ahead of its Coffee: World Markets and Trade Report, the Foreign Agricultural Service (FAS) of the U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) cut its estimate of coffee production in Brazil and Colombia. Brazil’s output for the current (July-June) 2022/23 crop year is estimated at 62.6 million bags, 1.7 million bags than in the latest official estimate issued in June.

The report sees Arabica production at 39.8 million bags, down from 41.5 million bags in the previous report. The USDA kept its projection for Brazil’s Robusta coffee production unchanged at 22.8 million bags.

In a separate report, Usda revised its Colombian coffee production forecast for MY 2022/23 down to 12.6 million bags, a decrease of 3.1 percent from USDA’s official figure.

Excessive rains and cloudiness have continued in some coffee producing regions due to an extended La Niña weather phenomena.

According to a recent report from the Colombian Institute of Meteorology (IDEAM), rainy weather conditions are forecast to occur with an 80 percent probability in the last quarter of 2022 and the beginning of 2023.

In MY 2021/22, Post’s revised coffee production estimate is 11.8 million bags, a 9.2 percent decrease from USDA’s official forecast of 13.0 million bags.

Colombia’s replanting program, a collaboration between Colombia’s Coffee Growers Association, Fedecafe, and the government, has helped prevent the spread of coffee rust in a time where wet conditions increase the risk of spread.

According to Fedecafe, 85 percent of Colombia’s coffee area is planted with rust-resistant varieties, compared to 35 percent in 2010.

Rising production costs, high interest rates, and adverse weather conditions have prevented more widescale renovation in 2022 of coffee fields, contributing to the likelihood that Colombia will not reach its goal of renovating 80,000 hectares this year.

In MY 2022/23, Post’s revised coffee exports forecast is 12.7 million bags, a 2.3 percent decrease from USDA’s official estimate. This is due to lower production which impacts exports as nearly 96 percent of domestic production is exported.

In MY 2021/22, Post’s revised coffee exports estimate is down 5.7 percent from 13.1 million bags to 12.4 million bags due to a contraction in production.

The United States continues to be the major destination for Colombian coffee with over 40 percent market share, followed by the European Union, Canada, Japan, and others. Coffee bean exports represent 90 percent of total Colombian exports followed by soluble coffee (8 percent) and roasted coffee (2 percent).

In MY 2022/23, Post’s revised coffee imports forecast is up 13.5 percent to 2.1 million bags. In the previous marketing year, coffee imports increased further than expected due to rising local demand and lower domestic production that prioritized foreign markets.

Post forecasts that in MY 2022/23, imports will maintain similar levels from the previous marketing year at 2.1 million bags to balance ongoing demand for exporting domestic production and to meet local consumption needs.

In MY 2021/22, Post’s revised coffee imports estimate is 2.1 million bags, up 15.5 percent from 1.8 million bags. Imports are up due to increased domestic consumption and lower local production.

Brazil continues to be the top coffee supplier to Colombia. Peru is the second largest supplier followed by Honduras and Ecuador. Colombia primarily imports coffee beans (91 percent), followed by soluble coffee imports (8 percent) and roasted coffee (1 percent).

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