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MILAN — Robusta futures were in a free-fall during the first week of September. In London, the main contract for November delivery closed on Friday 5 September at $4,309, which is $506 (10.5%) less than on Friday 29 August. This sharp decline was driven by the record harvest of Brazilian conilon, which is estimated at 20.1 million bags by Conab but as high as 25–26 million by independent analysts, as well as the prospect of a recovery in production in Vietnam, where the harvest season will begin in a few weeks. Nevertheless, this decline follows a rise of more than 44% in August.
The trend was less pronounced in New York: at ICE Arabica, the contract for December delivery fell by almost 4% in the first session of the month on Tuesday 2 September, following the long Labour Day weekend, to close the day at 370.35 cents.
The benchmark partially recovered in the next two sessions, rising to 374.40 cents on Thursday 4 September. However, it then fell back into negative territory on Friday 5 September, closing the week at 373.65 cents: 3.2% lower than on the last trading day of August.
The downward revision of Brazil’s Arabica harvest forecast by Conab and other authoritative sources did not significantly impact the performance of coffee futures in New York, partly because the markets had already anticipated and discounted these lower figures.
Weather forecasts for the coming weeks in Brazil’s production areas also contributed to limiting the increases. According to Brazil’s National Institute of Meteorology (Inmet), the next 15 days will be characterised by mild and dry weather in the Arabica coffee belt, with sporadic and light rainfall.
Seasonal rains are expected to intensify between September and October, at the start of spring, which marks the beginning of the main flowering season. Long-term models predict favourable rainfall levels in October and November.
Robusta growing regions, especially in the state of EspÃrito Santo, have enjoyed good rainfall, and the favourable weather expected for the coming weeks could trigger new flowerings and boost the development of the crop.
Meanwhile, the Brazilian government has released preliminary data on green coffee exports in August, which fell by 31.02% year-on-year to 2,380,800 bags.
Cecafé’s complete figures are expected this week. In the coming weeks, markets will also pay increasing attention to weather developments in Vietnam and Central America ahead of the 2025/26 season.
Colombian production is still growing
Colombian coffee production in August amounted to 1.243 million bags — a 19% increase compared to the same month last year, according to data from the National Federation of Coffee Growers.
Production in August remains lower than in July, when it amounted to 1.37 million bags.
Production for the first eight months of the year is up by 800,000 bags (10%) to 8.828 million. Finally, production over the last 12 months has increased by 18% to a notable 14.798 million bags.
Exports also grew, reaching 1.12 million bags in August: This is 10% more than in the same month a year ago. Over the past 12 months, exports totalled 13.23 million bags, marking a 13% increase.
