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MILAN – Robusta coffee futures consolidated to the upside in the last session of the week. On Friday, 4 July, September ICE robusta coffee gained $50 to close at $3,677, marking a further recovery from the lows of the last week of June. On the same day, New York was closed for Independence Day. Meanwhile, preliminary data from the Brazilian government show that green coffee exports fell by more than a third (34.14%) in June, to 2,231,050 bags.
In Vietnam, customs authorities reported a 53% increase in exports in June compared to the same month last year, reaching 2,231,050 bags. Total exports in the first nine months of the 2024/25 coffee year (October–June) were 6.6% lower than in the same period a year ago, totalling 19.55 million bags.
On the third and final day of the 10th Coffee Dinner & Summit in Campinas on Friday, the state of the global coffee market was reviewed. One key point that emerged from the discussions was that it will take at least a couple of years to replenish world stocks, provided that harvest trends are favourable.
“I do not believe (the industry will be able to) build up stocks from this year to next year. I think we would need at least two good harvests,” the commercial superintendent of Brazilian coffee co-operative Cooxupe, Luiz Fernando dos Reis, told Reuters on the sidelines of the event.
“To replenish the stocks we had four years ago, it will take at least two years of very good harvests, if everything goes well,” said Louis Dreyfus Company’s coffee research director Charles Chiapolino.
“And we know how difficult it is to keep the climate aligned across the world for two years in a row, it’s almost impossible,” Chiapolino added.
Dos Reis also warned that when outlining the global outlook, one must take into account that even if Brazil produces a large harvest in the 2026/27 season, the following crop is not expected to be as good due to the biennial Arabica cycle of high and low output.
On the other hand, Chiapolino said during a presentation that Brazil could add 23 million 60kg bags to the market over the next ten years, after increasing production by 9 million bags over the last decade.
In order to achieve this target, however, Brazil will have to solve its logistical problems and get prepared for the challenges posed by climate change. In this regard, Chiapolino gave the example of the Brazilian state of EspÃrito Santo, which overcame last year’s severe drought with relative ease thanks to irrigation.
Conversely, excessive rainfall risks reducing the next Colombian harvest by at least one million bags compared to the previous year.
“We are facing a very bad moment,” said Germán Bahamón in an interview with Reuters. “Losses could reach 1–1.5 million bags.” Colombia’s production this year (2024/25) is estimated at 15 million bags, an all-time high since 1992.
