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PIRACICABA, São Paulo, Brazil – Coffee prices in Brazil and on the international market are expected to remain volatile in 2026, says CEPEA in its latest fortnightly report. With the year beginning amid tight stocks, even as harvest advances in Vietnam, limited global availability may keep prices at high levels, as seen during much of the second half of 2025.
Despite signs of weaker demand in both the domestic market and major consuming markets, restricted supply may continue to support prices until there is greater clarity on the performance of the final third of Brazil’s crop.
In Brazil, the 2026/27 crop has so far developed under more favorable weather conditions than in previous years, although regional issues persist. In the Cerrado Mineiro and in the Mogiana region, more consistent rainfall returned only from October–November, which may delay the crop calendar.
Still, milder temperatures have improved plant conditions, reinforcing expectations of recovery after around five weather-affected seasons.
Moreover, the 2026/27 season is characterized by a positive biennial cycle, which has reinforced producers’ optimism. Early projections point to output above 70 million 60-kg bags, reflecting both a recovery in arabica production and solid robusta performance. More reliable estimates are expected by the end of the first quarter of 2026.
For robusta, production in 2026/27 is forecast to be slightly lower than in 2025/26, due to less favorable early weather in Espírito Santo and plant recovery after a large crop, though prospects for the state remain positive.
Exports
Brazil’s 2025/26 coffee exports are set to decline due to lower supply. In the first five months of the season, shipments totaled 17.435 million bags, down 21.7% from July–November 2024, while revenue rose 11.6% to USD 6.723 billion, reflecting higher international prices and the effects of U.S. tariffs between August and part of November.
