Thursday 25 July 2024
  • La Cimbali

La Niña no longer likely in the coming months

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The El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) in the tropical Pacific Ocean remains neutral (neither El Niño nor La Niña).

Although some very weak La Niña-like patterns continue (such as cooler than normal ocean temperatures and reduced cloudiness in the central and eastern Pacific), La Niña thresholds have not been met.

Climate models and current observations suggest these patterns will not persist. The likelihood of La Niña developing in the coming months is now low, and hence the Australian Government Bureau of Meteorology’s ENSO Outlook has shifted from La Niña WATCH to INACTIVE.

The Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) also remains neutral (neither positive nor negative), as is typical at this time of year. When ENSO and the IOD are neutral they have limited impact on Australian climate.

The climate of Australia, and other countries around the tropical Indian Ocean and western Pacific Ocean, has been strongly influenced during the second half of 2016 by both a strong negative IOD in the tropical Indian Ocean (that ended in November) and the weak La Niña-like pattern in the tropical Pacific (which has eased).

This combination of climate drivers contributed to Australia observing its wettest May to September on record in 2016.

CIMBALI
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