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MILAN — Human laws and laws of nature both influenced the coffee market last month: according to the ICO monthly report, released late yesterday afternoon, Tuesday 9 December, two key events shaped market dynamics in November – US tariff relief on Brazilian coffee imports, a bearish factor, and severe flooding in Vietnam’s Central Highlands, a bullish factor. These largely offset each other, resulting in a relatively listless I-CIP movement.
The modest increase in the I-CIP was driven by higher prices across all Arabica groups, while the Robustas prices softened slightly.
On the Arabica front, Colombian Milds, Other Milds and Brazilian Naturals were up 1.4%, 1.6% and 1.8% respectively to 408.75, 410.31 and 380.17 cents. The Robusta indicator remained virtually unchanged (-0.1%), closing the month with an average of 214.91 cents. Similarly, the New York and London indicators rose by 2.1% and 0.1% respectively, to 373.57 and 202.33 cents.
Two executive orders issued by President Donald Trump (14360 of 14 November and 14361 of 20 November) modifying two previous executive orders (14257 and 14323) dating back to April and July have substantially changed the US tariff regime on coffee imports.
The first removed all reciprocal tariffs (under EO 14257) applied to certain agricultural products, including coffee, imported into the United States. In particular, this reduced the total tariff applied to Brazilian coffee products from 50% to 40% for the items concerned.
Six days later, on 20 November 2025, Executive Order 14361 was signed, modifying the ad valorem duty rate of 40% on certain products from Brazil, which was first announced under Executive Order 14323.
This Executive Order therefore removed the additional 40% tariff applied to imports of coffee from Brazil
It is important to reiterate that Executive Orders 14360 and 14361 apply to both green coffee and processed coffee, with the sole exception of unflavoured instant coffee
The first of the two executive orders mentioned above caused the ICO composite indicator to fall to a monthly low of 320.39 cents on 14 November, just three days after it had reached a monthly high of 343.92 cents on 11 November.
The second executive order caused the ICO indicator to fall again, dropping by 1.9% the following day.
The brief duration of this impact suggests that the market had already priced in the eventual removal of the 40% levy, says the report. It also indicates that supply from Brazil to the international market was not significantly curtailed and that market participants did not expect a significant post-levy surge in supply availability from the origin.
The limited decline in the I-CIP and its subsequent consolidation in the second half of November also suggest that additional and opposing bullish factors were also at play, continues the report.
Firstly, the extreme weather events that have affected Asia
From Sri Lanka to Vietnam, Indonesia, Thailand and Malaysia, a wave of exceptional rainfall has caused over 1,300 deaths, thousands of injuries and millions of displaced persons. Global warming and rampant deforestation have made Southeast Asia one of the epicentres of the climate crisis.
Since the weekend beginning 15 November, the Central Highlands — the main coffee-producing region of Vietnam — was affected by severe flooding. It was reported that from 15 to 19 November, rainfall exceeded 1,100 millimetres in several areas as compared with a typical November average of 104.3 millimetres.
In Dak Lak, the biggest coffee-producing province, around 10–15% of the 2025/26 coffee harvest had reportedly been picked and was being dried.
There have also been problems in Indonesia, where Cyclone Senya caused flooding and landslides in Aceh, West Sumatra and North Sumatra during the last week of November.
“It will take time for a full assessment of the weather-related impacts on supply conditions in the two largest coffee-producing countries in Asia & Oceania to become known, and for the subsequent implications for global supply availability to become clear,” reads the ICO Report.
Meanwhile, exports in October, the first month of the 2025/26 coffee year, grew marginally (+0.6%) to 11.157 million bags.
Arabica exports fell by 1.7% to 7.312 million bags. The decline is the result of lower shipments (-8.4%) of Brazilian Naturals, which fell to 4.321 million, while Colombian Milds (+5.7%) and Other Milds (+12.7%) grew to 1.206 and 1.785 million, respectively. Finally, Robusta exports recovered by 5.3% to 3.846 million.
