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MILAN – New revised estimates on production and consumption published by the ICO shed new light on market trends, demonstrating – according to the Organisation’s statistics – that the current high prices are not only the result of speculation, but primarily of a multi-year supply deficit. This is the most important conclusion we can draw from reading between the lines of the monthly report released by the ICO yesterday afternoon, Monday 10 November 2025, which provided some important statistical updates.
But let’s take it one step at a time: October saw a slight overall recovery in prices. The monthly average of the ICO Composite Indicator Price (I-CIP) rose to 326.38 cents (+0.5%): the highest level since the beginning of the summer, but still below the historic peaks of February.
There were changes in the order of fractions of a percentage point for Arabicas: Colombian Milds remained virtually unchanged (-0.1%), Other Milds recovered (+0.9%), and Brazilian Naturals fell slightly (-0.4%).
The monthly average for Robusta, on the other hand, recorded a 2% increase.
New York was flat (-0.1%), while the London indicator rose by 2.3%. The daily average fluctuated between a low of 314.68 pence on 10 October and a high of 344.77 pence on 22 October.
However, volatility was very high, at 15.9%, with a peak of 18.1% for the New York Stock Exchange indicator.
According to the report, the I-CIP remained range-bound stable throughout October 2025, with bullish and bearish factors offsetting each other:
- A potential reduction of tariffs applied on Brazilian coffee by the US.. US President Donald Trump predicted that the two nations could “pretty quickly” strike a trade deal as he met with counterpart President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva, stating that “there’s no reason for having any kind of conflict” between Brazil and the US, and that he was hopeful he soon could announce “good news.”
- A widespread sentiment of consumption growth rates slowing down:
- The price in BRL of a supermarket basket containing coffee in Brazil rose significantly due to the high international prices, quoted in USD, in addition to high inflation within key coffee consuming-producing countries.
- Signs of weakening US consumer spending, with vehicle repossessions rising 12% year on year to 1.7 million – the highest level since the 2009 crash.
However, on the flip side, the following bullish price factors continued to positively influence the I-CIP:
- Central American supply is keeping positive pressure on prices, due to hurricane Melissa, low rain in key Brazilian regions, and labour shortages
- Structural container shortages at origin, logistics delays with longer transshipment times, and Suez Canal restrictions have kept more coffee “on the water”, reducing availability at destination.
- The structural backwardation (a market situation where immediate delivery is higher than for coffee available for future delivery) remains in the ICE markets, as supply shortfalls make coffee more expensive to purchase now than for future delivery.
- Headlines about crop losses in Vietnam, as well as in the Philippines and Cambodia, due to typhoon Kalmaegi.
Global exports stable compared to 2023/24
Meanwhile, total exports by exporting countriein September fell by 2.8% compared to the same month last year, dropping to just under 11 million bags. Arabica exports fell sharply (-11%) to 6.753 million bags.
Increases in Colombian Milds and Other Milds (+6.7% and +3.3% respectively) were not enough to offset the sharp decline in Brazilian Naturals (-22.6%). On the other hand, Robusta shipments recovered (+14.1%), rising to 4.246 million.
As a result of these figures, exports for the entire 2024/25 coffee year (October-September) are more or less in line (-0.3%) with those of the previous year, amounting to 138.658 million bags, compared to 139.015 million in 2023/24.
Arabica exports fell by 1.3% to 84.137 million. Exports of Colombian Milds (+13.5%) reached almost 15 million; exports of Other Milds (+2.6%) were close to 27 million, but this was offset by a 7.9% decline in Brazilian Naturals, to 42.217 million, compared to 45.832 million in the previous year.
Finally, global exports of Robusta coffee increased by 1.5% to 54.521 million, compared to 53.735 million in 2023/24.
But let’s move on to the new estimates for production and consumption, which show significant changes compared to the figures published in the previous reports
At the end of the year, the ICO now estimates world production for 2024/25 at 177.513 million, up 5.2% compared to 2023/24.
The global Arabica harvest is 102.065 million. The Robusta harvest is up 6.2% to 75.448 million. The growth trend is common to all geographical areas.
World consumption is estimated at 175.071 million, which is also up by 1.4%. Growth was higher in producing countries (+2.5%) than in consuming countries (+0.9%).
As a result of these figures, there is a surplus between production and consumption of 2.443 million, following a series of particularly marked deficits in the last three years (-5.407 million, -11.070 million and -3.871 million between 2021 and 2023), only partially offset by the surplus of the year just ended.
If we are to believe these statistics – other sources provide different figures and we also note some incompleteness in the tables – the current very high prices would therefore find real justification in a historical and structural supply deficit, which has led to a sharp erosion of stocks, and not only in prevailing speculative forces.
