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MILAN – The easing of tensions in the coffee markets towards the end of the year is reflected in the downward trend of ICO indicator prices, which have fallen sharply for all coffee groups. According to the ICO Coffee Market Report for the month of December, released late yesterday afternoon (Monday 12 January 2026), the monthly average of the ICO Composite Indicator Price (I-CIP) fell sharply in the last month of the year, settling at 304.68 cents/lb: 7.8% less than in November.
The sharpest decline was recorded for Robustas, which fell to 190.53 cents — down 11.3% — and, for the first time since August, below the $2 per lb threshold.
Similarly, the London indicator (average prices for 2nd and 3rd positions) lost 11.6%, landing at 178.87 cents. The decline in Arabica indicators was more moderate, with Colombian Milds, Other Milds and Brazilian Naturals varieties down 6.5%, 7.1% and 6.5% to 382.32, 381.14, 355.38 cents/lb respectively. The New York indicator fell 6.9% to 347.71 cents/lb
Volatility remained very high (9.6%), although well below that of November (11.1%). The daily indicator price fluctuated between a high of 326.04 on 1st December and a low of 283.56 cents on 19th December.
The end of the year saw a partial recovery, which continued in the first few days of 2026, with the I-CIP returning above the 300 cents/lb for three consecutive days, reaching a high of 307.11 cents on 7 January.
The report attributes this price behaviour to a number of factors that we have already discussed in our analyses, but which are worth summarising again. Prior to the accelerated depreciation, the I-CIP had already been trending downward, reflecting an improved outlook for the global balance, says the ICO.
The decline was accelerated by a series of circumstances and events. On the political front, the further postponement of the EUDR and the rescinding of US reciprocal tariffs, including those on coffee, as well as a Brazil-specific tariff.
These measures removed some of the uncertainty that had been weighing on the market.
On the fundamentals front, the upward revision of the 2025/26 Brazilian harvest official estimate, combined with a slight upward correction in the USDA’s global production outlook.
“While the magnitude of the revision was marginal, it reinforced the prevailing narrative of improving supply expectations,” says the report.
In financial terms, the depreciation of the Brazilian real against the dollar has put further pressure on prices. Meanwhile, the ICE Arabica saw a significant reduction in net long positions held by non-commercial traders, which fell from 34,747 to 23,673 lots in the 14 days leading up to 23 December.
The subsequent recovery in late December appears to have been triggered by two developments: lower rainfall in Brazil, which has partially reduced the expectations of improved harvest prospects (although not according to all analysts, ed.), and widespread flooding in Indonesia, which could reduce the country’s exports by up to 15% during the 2025/26 coffee year.
It should be reiterated that market hyper-reactivity depends largely on the sharp contraction in global stocks after three years (from 2021/22 to 2024/25) of global production imbalance, resulting in a cumulative deficit of almost 18 million bags over that period.
“At the same time, publicly available consumer stocks in Europe declined sharply to 7.86 million bags as of 31 October 2025 from 15.04 million bags at the start of coffee year 2022/23.
Similarly, certified Arabica stocks held in ICE warehouses in the United States fell to 0.48 million bags in December 2025, down from 0.91 million bags in January 2025,” states the report.
Meanwhile, global exports are on the rise. In the first two months of CY 2025/26 (October-November), total exports of all forms of coffee grew by 3.8% to 10.473 million bags. Robusta shipments recovered strongly, increasing by 21.8% to 4.11 million.
Arabica exports fell by 5.2% to 6.363 million. Other Milds were the only group to perform well, rising by 19.8% to 1.505 million. Brazilian Naturals and Colombian Milds fell by 13.8% and 2.5% respectively, to 3.54 and 1.318 million.
