Friday 02 December 2022

ICO Coffee Report shows decline in global exports

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LONDON, UK – According to ICO ’s latest monthly report, the Composite Indicator Price (I-CIP) fluctuated in between 193.28 and 206.37 US cents/lb during the month of September. The monthly average fell slightly (-0.2%), whilst posting a median value of 198.43 US cents/lb. Average prices for all groups indicators decreased in September 2022, except for the Robustas, which had an uptick of 1.6% from August to September 2022. The Robustas averaged 111.36 US cents/lb for the month of September.

The Colombian Milds and Other Milds, decreased by 0.5% and 0.3% respectively, month-on-month in September. The former averaged 294.09 US cents/lb in September 2022, whilst the latter averaged 267.49 US cents/lb.

The upturns are in part due to the average 2nd and 3rd positions of the ICE New York futures market, which lost 0.1% in September 2022 over August 2022. The average of the 2nd and 3rd positions of the ICE Futures Europe for the Robustas grew by 1.8%.

The Brazilian Naturals-Robusta differential took the hardest hit from August to September 2022, retracting 3.6% from 112.26 to 108.23 US cents/lb as growth of the Robustas outpaced the Brazilian Naturals.

The Colombian Milds-Other Milds differential sustained a 2.3% loss for the aforementioned period, whilst the Colombian Milds-Robustas differential shrank by 1.8%. The Colombian Milds-Brazilian Naturals differential grew by 1% to 74.50 US cents/lb in September 2022.

The strongest growth among all the differentials was observed for the Other Milds-Brazilian Naturals differential, gaining 3.0%, ranging 46.52 to 47.90 US cents/lb for their respective monthly averages. Lastly, the Other Milds-Robustas differential lost 1.7% from August to September 2022.

The average of the monthly differential stood at 156.13 US cents/lb, down from 158.78 in August 2022.

The arbitrage between the New York and London Futures markets shrunk by 1.7%, falling to 117.74 US Cents/lb in September 2022 from 119.79 US cents/lb in August 2022.

Intra-day volatility of the I-CIP decreased 2.0 percentage points between August and September 2022, reaching a low of 8.3%. Robustas and the London futures market presented the lowest volatility amongst all group indicators, at 7.3% and 7.0% in September 2022.

The Brazilian Naturals volatility, was the highest amongst the group indicators, averaging 10.9%, a 2.4 percentage point decrease from the previous month. The variation in volatility of the Colombian Milds and Other Milds for August to September 2022 is -2.0 to 8.0% and -2.8 to 8.6%, respectively.

The New York futures market remained the most volatile, albeit posting a decrease of 3.4 percentage points, averaging 11.2% for the month of September 2022.

The New York certified stocks decreased 37.2% from the previous month, closing in at 0.45 million bags, whilst certified stocks of Robusta coffee reached 1.59 million bags, representing a decrease of 0.8%.

ICO Report: Export by Coffee Groups

Global exports of green beans in August 2022 totalled 8.83 million bags, compared with 9.17 million bags in the same month of the previous year, down 3.7%. The downturn was spread across all groups of coffee, with the exception of the Brazilian Naturals, which saw a 7.1% increase in August 2022 as compared with the same month a year ago.

The second consecutive month of negative growth has pushed the cumulative total exports of green beans for the first eleven months of coffee year 2021/22 further into red, down 1.0% as compared to 0.7% decrease for the first 10 months of the current coffee year. The cumulative total for 2021/22 to August is 107.05 million bags as compared with 108.13 million bags over the same period a year ago.

Exports of the Colombian Milds decreased by 23.0% to 0.86 million bags in August 2022 from 1.12 million bags in August 2021, driven primarily by Colombia, the main origin of this group of coffee, whose exports of green beans were down 25.6% in August 2022.

As a result of the relatively sharp downturn, exports of the Colombian Milds in October 2021–August 2022 were down by 5.7% at 11.32 million bags, as compared with 12.0 million bags in the first 11 months of coffee year 2020/21. Colombia exported 0.79 million bags of green beans in August 2022, the lowest August exports since 0.54 million bags were shipped in 2012.

The Brazilian Naturals bounced back in August with a 7.1% increase, following a 4.6% fall in July 2022, exporting 2.85 million bags as compared with 2.66 million bags in August 2021. The upturn was driven by Brazil, the biggest producer and exporter of the Brazilian Naturals, with its total green bean exports increasing by 4.6% in August 2022 to 2.44 million bags. However, the cumulative total exports of the Brazilian Naturals for coffee year 2021/22 to August 2022 is down 5.8% at 34.52 million bags, as compared with 36.66 million bags.

Shipments of the Other Milds decreased by 3.7% in August 2022 to 1.94 million bags from 2.01 million bags in the same period last year. This is the fifth consecutive months of fall. As a result, the cumulative volume of exports continued to increase but at a declining rate, falling to 1.3% in the first 11 months of coffee year 2021/22 (22.09 million bags vs 21.08 million bags) from 2.7% in the first 10 months of the same coffee year.

Guatemala and Honduras were the two main origins responsible for the latest fall in exports of the Other Milds, with their exports of green beans plunging by 27.7% and 41.3%, respectively.

In Honduras, the coffee industry is struggling with leaf-rust, or roya, which has hit the industry’s harvests, with the country’s coffee association lowering the exports outlook for coffee year 2021/22, twice already, from 5.823 million bags to 4.61 million bags.

Guatemala is also dealing with impact of a lower production, due mainly to climatic reasons and availability of labour, that is having a knock-on effect on the country’s exports.

Exports of the Robustas totalled 3.17 million bags in August 2022, as compared with 3.38 million bags in August 2021, down 6.0%. Exports of green beans for the first 11 months of the current and previous coffee years for the Robustas were 42.57 million bags and 41.22 million bags, respectively, up 3.8%.

Ethiopia and India are the two main origins behind the latest downturn, suffering from 16.0% and 13.1% decreases, respectively, in August 2022, with their total green bean exports at 0.43 million bags and 0.37 million bags, respectively. India, especially, has had a good year so far, with the total exports of green beans for the first eleven months of coffee year 2021/22 increasing by 31.1% to 4.62 million bags as compared to 3.53 million bags, an increase of 1.1 million bags.

As a result, the production/export ratio is falling sharply, down from 1.48 in coffee year 2020/21 to 1.12 in coffee year 2021/22. The ratio is a good indication of supply availability. Therefore, it is possible that the sharp fall in India’s August 2022 exports is a reflection of the supply availability towards the end of a stellar year.

Total exports of soluble coffee increased by 13.2% in August 2022 to 0.98 million bags from 0.87 million bags in August 2021. In the first 11 months of coffee year 2021/22, a total of 11.06 million bags of soluble coffee were exported, representing an increase of 6.3% from the 10.4 million bags exported in the same period during the previous coffee year.

The share of soluble coffee of the total exports of all forms of coffee was 9.3% (measured on a moving 12-month average) in August 2022. Brazil is the largest exporter of soluble coffee, shipping 3.58 million bags in the first 11 months of coffee year 2021/22, followed by India with 2.0 million bags, with Indonesia in third place at 1.53 million bags exported over the same period.

Exports of roasted beans increased by 59.9% in August 2022 to 89,548 bags from 55,995 bags in August 2021. The cumulative total for coffee year 2021/22 to August 2022 was 0.75 million bags, as compared with 0.72 million bags in same period a year ago.

Regional outlook

In October 2021 to August 2022, South America’s exports of all forms of coffee decreased by 23.3% to 50.46 million bags. Brazil and Colombia are the reasons for this large drop in exports. During this period, shipments from Brazil declined by 27.2% to 34.74 million bags from 47.4 million bags in October-August 2020/21. The volume of exports from Colombia is down 18.7% in the first 11 months of coffee year 2021/22 at 11.17 million bags, from 13.74 million bags in the same period a year ago.

Along with a smaller crop harvested during its Arabicaoff-season” and the problems with containers and shipping, mainly noted during the middle of the current coffee year, explains the large drop in exports of all forms of coffee in Brazil, while the fall in the exports of Colombia is linked to persistent unfavourable weather conditions reducing the available supply of coffee in the country. Nevertheless, Peru is enjoying a good year, with exports of all forms of coffee expanding by 6.1% in the first 11 months of coffee year 2021/22 to 4.05 million bags from 3.82 million bags in the same period a year ago.

Exports of all forms of coffee from Asia & Oceania increased by 2.7% to 3.25 million bags in August 2022, but were down 1.5% to 40.86 million bags in the first 11 months of coffee year 2021/22. Indonesia was the origin behind the uptick for August, with its exports growing by 20.1% to 0.65 million bags from 0.54 million bags in August 2021.

However, the country is also the main reason behind the negative cumulative growth of the region for the season so far: exports of all forms of coffee are down 17.8% to 6.24 million bags in the first 11 months of coffee year 2021/22 as compared with 7.59 million bags in the same period a year ago.

Vietnam, the region’s biggest producer and export, made a margin gain in August, with the origin’s exports increasing by 0.1% to 1.89 million bags, bringing the year’s total (October 2021 to August 2022) to 26.6 million bags, up 1.8% year-on-year. India’s shipments were down 6.0% in August 2022 to 0.57 million bags, however the total for the first 11 months remains up at 8.5%, 6.64 million bags versus 6.12 million bags in the first 11 months of coffee year 2021/22.

Exports of all forms of coffee from Africa decreased by 11.9% to 1.24 million bags in August 2022 from 1.4 million bags in August 2021. For the first 11 months of the current coffee year, exports totalled 12.48 million bags as compared with 15.44 million bags in coffee year 2020/21.

Uganda is the main source of the downturn for the region in August, with its exports falling by 28.5% to 0.5 million bags as compared to 0.7 million bags in August 2021. The cumulative total for coffee year 2021/22 to August 2022 is also down, decreasing by 23.0% to 5.35 million bags from 6.94 million bags in the same period a year ago. The decrease in exports was mainly due to the impact of drought in most of the coffee growing regions, which led to a lower and shorter main harvest season in central and eastern parts of Uganda, and hence lower output.

In August 2022, exports of all forms of coffee from Mexico & Central America were down 7.4% to 1.19 million bags as compared with 1.29 million in August 2021. For the first 11 months of the current coffee year, exports are down 13.0%, totalling 15.07 million bags as compared with 17.34 million bags in October–August 2020/21.

The region’s sharp downturn in August was due Guatemala and Honduras, down 27.8% and 41.3%, respectively. For the first 11 months of coffee year 2021/22, the total exports are 3.16 million bags and 4.53 million bags, for the two origins, respectively, down 15.6% and 24.0%. The reason for the poor performance of the two origins has already been explained in the “Exports by Coffee Groups” section above.

ICO ‘s production and consumption estimate

The provisional outlook for total production in coffee year 2021/22 remains unchanged at 167.2 million bags, a 2.1% decrease as compared to 170.83 million bags in the previous coffee year.

World coffee consumption is projected to grow by 3.3% to 170.3 million 60-kg bags in 2021/22 as compared to 164.9 million for coffee year 2020/21. In 2021/22, consumption is expected to exceed production by 3.1 million bags.

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