ABIDJAN, Côte d’Ivoire – The International Cocoa Organization (Icco) released yesterday its first forecasts for the 2017/2018 cocoa year and revised estimates of world production, grindings and stocks of cocoa beans for 2016/2017.
The data published in the Quarterly Bulletin of Cocoa Statistics reflect the most recent information available to the Secretariat as at the beginning of February 2018.
According to the forecast, there will be a global cocoa surplus of 105,000 tonnes in the 2017/18 season (October/September).
The inter-governmental body’s estimate reflects a decline of slightly more than two percent in global production from the prior season and a rise of two percent in world grindings.
The ICCO also downwardly revised its estimated global surplus for 2016/17 to 300,000 tonnes, from a previous projection of 335,000 tonnes.Production in world’s top grower Ivory Coast was forecast to fall slightly in 2017/18 to 2.00 million tonnes from 2.02 million in the prior season.
“With the mild harmattan season, most market participants expected a good harvest for the current season, although it is anticipated to be lower than the previous season’s output,” said the ICCO.
Global grindings were forecast to rise to 4.49 million tonnes in 2017/18, from 4.40 million in the prior season “as cocoa processors take advantage of lower international prices resulting in high processing margins.”
The largest increase of almost three percent is expected in the Asia and Oceania regions.
Processing activities were anticipated to increase by more than two percent in Europe but remain virtually flat in the Americas, the ICCO said.