Volcafe, the Swiss-based coffee division of commodities house ED&F Man, has raised by 1 million bags to almost 10 million bags its forecast for the world coffee deficit in coffee year 2014/15.
Supply will trail demand by 9.9 million bags in the 12 months that started Oct. 1, compared with a 7.4 million bags surplus in coffee year 2013/14, Volcafe said yesterday in an e-mailed report.
The Winterthur, Switzerland-based trader cited tree fatigue, as well as increased incidence of disease reducing yields in Vietnam.
“Variable weather during the development of this season’s crop has also led to some quality concerns,” it added.
Consequently, the global Robusta deficit is likely to reach 3 million bags, the largest since 2006, compared with a previous estimate of 1.9 million bags from September. Last season, there was a surplus of 2 million.
For Arabica, the global shortfall is seen at 6.9 million bags, Volcafe said. Brazil’s deficit of the variety was lowered to 6.2 million bags, from 6.9 million bags forecast in September, the company said, citing lower demand.
The shortfall in the Brazilian Arabica supply will be offset by surpluses in the previous two seasons of 11 million bags, Volcafe said.
“There remains sufficient Brazilian Arabica to meet demand needs in 14/15,” according to the report. “Globally new demand will be a function of Robusta.”