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MILAN – The coffee sector in Ethiopia, the homeland of Coffea Arabica variety, is reaching a historic milestone: according to data released by the Ethiopian Coffee and Tea Authority (ECTA), coffee exports generated a total of $ 1.87 billion over the ten months to April 2025, marking an 87% increase in value compared to the same period last year. Exported volumes totalled 354,302 tonnes (5,905,033 bags), up by 70%.
This exceeds the set targets by 142%. If this trend continues in the coming months, the export value is expected to exceed $2 billion, by the end of this fiscal year. Germany, Saudi Arabia and the U.S. remain the top markets for Ethiopia.
Adugna Debela, Ecta’s general manager, attributes this strong performance to the government’s targeted reforms and favourable market conditions.
Debela emphasises the progress made in particular in terms of traceability and quality control, as well as improved access to international buyers via digital auction platforms and bilateral trade agreements.
In an interview with Semafor, David Luke, director of the Firoz Lalji Institute for Africa at the London School of Economics, praised the government’s decision to step up support to smallholder farmers by providing supply inputs, state-of-the-art irrigation systems, and better infrastructure.
Mexican coffee production is growing, but productivity remains very low. According to data from the annual Gain Report of the US Department of Agriculture’s Foreign Agricultural Service, Mexico’s 2024/25 (October/September) coffee crop is slightly up on-year (+0.4%) at 3.87 million bags.
A further increase to 3.903 million is expected for 2025/26. Coffee year 2024/25 is characterised by opposite trends for the two varieties: the Arabica crop is estimated to grow by 5.2% to 3.53 million, while the Robusta crop is seen down by almost a third (-32%), to 340 thousand bags, due to the heat waves that affected the Veracruz lowlands between June and October 2024. Productivity is very low, at just under six bags per hectare.
Coffee cultivation in Mexico spans 14 states. High-quality Arabica varieties, representing about 35 percent of national production, thrive at elevations above 900 meters. Another 44% is grown between 600 and 900 meters. Robusta coffee, primarily cultivated at lower altitudes, is expanding into former livestock grazing lands.
Just four states—Chiapas, Veracruz, Puebla, and Oaxaca—account for 91.4% of Mexico’s total coffee output. Chiapas (37%) and Veracruz (24%) have production shares proportional to their harvested areas.
Puebla stands out with 22%of production despite only occupying 10% of the harvested area, reflecting higher productivity. It is the only state with a yield per hectare in double figures (around 12 bags per hectare), thanks to favourable soil and climate conditions, investments in pest-resistant plants, a concentration of medium to large-scale producers, and favourable infrastructure near major cities.
Despite the slight growth in production, Mexican coffee producers continue to face several challenges, says the report. These include:
Limited Coffee Farm Renovation: Renovation efforts have slowed due to limited government support. Producers largely depend on their own resources or assistance from cooperatives and the private sector. While companies such as Nestlé, coffee traders, and various small and medium-sized coffee enterprises offer support through extension services and financing, these programs only reach a small portion of producers.
Labor Shortages and Rising Costs: Many producers, especially in Chiapas, the main producing state, struggle to find field workers. Government policies have significantly reduced the availability of migrant labor (primarily from Guatemala). Moreover, alternative crops or sectors like tourism are offering more competitive wages, further increasing labor costs for coffee producers.
Pest Management: According to the National Service of Health, Food Safety, and Food Quality (SENASICA), the presence of the coffee berry borer (CBB) has been reduced, with infestation rates currently below 2 percent. Coffee rust, caused by the fungus Hemileia vastatrix, attacks leaves and can lead to defoliation, stunted fruit development, and even the death of the plants. Field management can reduce the impact, but continued renovation with resistant varieties is necessary.
Estimates for 2025/26 predict a further increase in shipments, which will bring exports to over 3 million bags. The most important export item is soluble coffee, with an estimated volume sold abroad of 1.473 million bags in 2024/25, which is set to surpass green coffee exports at 1.397 million bags.
Green coffee imports are set to grow further, reaching 1.858 million bags this year (+26.3%), which will supply the local instant coffee industry.
