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Conab estimates Brazil’s coffee production 43.85m to 49.59m bags down 21.4% to 30.5% YoY

Cepea coffee production

MILAN – Conab, Brazil’s national agricultural statistics agency, issued on Thursday its first forecast for crop year 2021/22, pegging production in a range between 43.85 and 49.59 million 60-kilogramme (132-pound) bags, down 21.4% to 30.5% from an all-time high of 63.1 million bags in 2020/21. Conab projects arabica production between 29.72 e i 32.99 million bags from 48.76 million bags in 2020/21.

This would be the lowest level in 12 years. On the other hand, the Robusta crop is estimated between 14.1 and 16.6 million bags and is likely to be highest on record.

Conab said coffee output would fall as Brazil’s coffee trees are in the lower-yielding half of a biennial cycle and that insufficient rain in key stages of crop development is exacerbating the decline in yields. Parts of the country suffered severe drought and heatwaves last year.

The arabica coffee plant, from which Brazil derives 77 percent of the coffee it produces, grows in alternating seasons of high and low yield.

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