Tuesday 04 October 2022

Brazil: Conab revises upward the official estimate for CY 2021/22 to 47.7m bags, down 24.4% YoY 118577

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MILAN – In its fourth report for this year, the Brazilian government’s food supply and statistics gency (Conab), revised upward its estimate for the 2021/22 coffee crop to 47.716 million bags, almost 840,000 bags more compared to its previous estimate released in September.

This is down 24.4% from the record output seen in 2020 of 63.1 million bags. Arabica output is down 35.5% to 31.42 million bags.

The usual drop in production due to an off-year in the biennial production cycle was exacerbated by the drought that hindered the crop development for most part of the season.

Severe winter frosts didn’t impact this year’s production, but are expected to take a heavy toll on next year’s.

Robusta production saw a new all-time high of 16.29 million bags, or a 13.8% increase over last year’s crop.

Overall productivity fell to 26.4 bags per hectare, or a 21.1% decrease over year.

Arabica productivity dropped sharply (-31.9%) to 21.9 bags per hectare; Robusta productivity rose by 12% to 43.4 bags per hectare.

According to Conab, Minas Gerais, Brazil’s largest producer of the crop, saw a 36.1% decline in production to 22.142 million bags. The biggest output drop was recorded in the regions of Zona da Mata, Rio Doce e Central (-44%) and Sul e Centro-Oeste (-38.6%).

In Espírito Santo, Brazil’s largest Robusta producer, the output rose to 14.166 million bags, or 1.5% year-on-year increase. Robusta production reached a record volume of 11.22 million bags, up 22.1% on year. The Arabica crop fell to 2.945 million bags, or a 38.2% decline.

Production in São Paulo was around 4 million bags, or a 35.2% decline over year. Bahia’s output was shy of 3.5 million bags, 13% down from 2020.

In Rondônia, production fell to 2.26 million bags (-7.4%) Production was down also in Paraná (-7%) to 876,300 bags.

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