Sunday 29 May 2022

Conab’s first estimate forecasts Brazilian production at 55.7 million bags in 2022, up 16.8%

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MILAN – In its first official forecast for the upcoming season, Brazil’s National Supply Company (Conab) estimates the 2022/23 coffee crop at 55.7 million bags of 60 kg. This a 16.8% increase over 2021, as the country enters the “on-year” in the Arabica biennial production cycle. The prediction, however, is below 2020’s record crop of 63 million bags.

The drop in production this year, when compared to 2020, is a reflection of adverse weather conditions, with drought and frost impacting Arabica crops in Minas Gerais, São Paulo, and Paraná, mostly in July and August 2021.

Still, Conab expects Arabica output to surge 23.4% from the previous harvest to 38.7 million bags.

On the other hand, Robusta (conilon) production is estimated at an all-time high of almost 17 million bags, up 4% from the previous season.

This record performance will be made possible by a 3% expansion in the planted area, going from 375.2 thousand to 389.1 thousand hectares, and a slight improvement in productivity (+0.4%), from 43.4 to 43.6 bags per cultivated hectare.

The total area destined for coffee growing, when considering the two varieties, is estimated at 2.23 million hectares, an increase of 1.7% over the previous cycle. Considering only crops in production, the index is close to stability and adds up to 1.824 million hectares.

Another 416.7 thousand hectares are coffee plantations in formation, up 6.4% year-on-year.

Arabica crops account for 1,809.98 thousand hectares, Robustas for 427,006 hectares.

Minas Gerais has the largest area with 1,328,572 hectares, or 59.4% of the total, followed by Espirito Santo with 446,340 bags.

In Minas Gerais, production will surge to 26.997 million bags, or a 21.9% increase y/o/y thanks the on-year in Arabica’s biennial cycle.

Espirito Santo is expected to harvest a record crop of 15.85 million bags (+11.9%). Robusta production will increase to 11.6 million. Arabica output will jump to 4.25 million bags, or a 44.3% increase.

Sao Paulo will reap 4.89 million bags, up 21.9%, far below the record crop of 2020.

Production in Bahia is estimated at almost 4 million bags (+14.2%) of which 1.7 of Arabica (+38.6%) and 2.256 of Robusta (+0.7%). Rondonia’s output will reach 2.47 million bags, up 9.9% on year. Parana’s production is expected to slump by 20% to 700,000 bags.

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