MILAN – In its second forecast for the 2023/24 crop season, the Brazil’s food supply and statistics agency (Conab) has pegged its production estimate at 54.74 million bags, slightly lower from a previous forecast of 54.9 million issued in January.
Despite the occurrence of a negative year in the biennial cycle, production will mark a 7.5% increase from last year’s crop of 50.92 million bags and will be 14.7% higher than in 2021.
Higher production is attributable to the Arabica crop, which is expected to reach 37.93 million bags – a 15.9% increase over 2022.
This increase is explained both by a 1.9% rise in the area under production a 13.7% gain in productivity, says Conab in a statement.
On the other hand, Robusta production is forecast to drop 7.6% to 16.81 million bags. A bigger crop in Rondônia, Bahia and Mato Grosso will not be sufficient to compensate the fall in productivity recorded in Espírito Santo, the country’s biggest producer of the lower quality variety.
“In Espírito Santo, adverse conditions were recorded, mainly in the early stages of the crop cycle, impacting the performance of the plantations”, the release also said.
Total production area (Arabica and Conilon) is estimated at 1.87 million hectares, up 1.7% from the previous crop year. The area under formation is estimated at 375,5000, a 6% drop relative to the previous cycle.
In Minas Gerais, production is expected to increase by a whopping 26.7% to 27.83 million bags. This sharp increase reflects a 6.4% expansion of the area in production and a 19,1% surge in productivity made possible by an improvement in the overall conditions of the crops after years of adverse weather.
In Espírito Santo, production will fall by 18.4% to 13.65 million bags, following a long dry spell coupled with low temperatures and the off-year in the biennial cycle for Arabicas. The Conillon crop is expected to record a 14.4% decrease to 10.575 million. Arabica production will fall sharply (-29.5%) to 3.075 million from a record crop of 4.363 million bags last year.
São Paulo will collect 4.935 million bags of Arabica, a 12.5% increase over the previous year, despite the off-year, thanks to the improved vegetative and weather conditions.
Production in Bahia will be slightly higher (+1.1%) at 3.643 million bags. Arabica production is expected to decrease by 8.1% to 1.168 million bags, despite a 5.4% expansion in the cultivate area, due mainly to the off-year. Benefiting from the favourable weather conditions, Robusta production is seen 6.1% higher to 2.475 milion. Productivity will reach 57.9 bags per hectare, the highest level in the country.
In Rondônia, production will surge 11.8% to a record 3.13 million bags of Robusta, thanks to a favourable climate and improved husbandry.
In Paraná, production is estimated at 686,700 bags of Arabica, a 45.5% increase over year.