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MILAN – Coffee prices recovered from last Friday’s lows yesterday, Monday 22 December. In New York, the ICE Arabica March contract gained almost 2%, to settle at 347.35 cents. In London, the contract for March delivery of the ICE Robusta rose 2.7% to close at $3,768. The weather situation in Brazil’s Arabica-growing regions continues to cause concern, with last week’s rainfall falling short of expectations.
According to Climatempo, Minas Gerais received 38.3 mm of rain last week, or 76% of the historical average.
In Vietnam, where the harvest is in full swing, coffee prices have fallen to their lowest levels since March last year, according to sources cited by Reuters last week.
In the Central Highlands, farmers sold beans at 88,700 dong to 90,000 dong (USA3.37 to USA3.42) per kg, down from last week’s 101,300 dong to 102,000 dong, according to Reuters.
Harvesting operations are progressing with more or less satisfactory results from area to area. “Farmers in Dak Lak, the main coffee-producing province, reported higher yields, while the neighbouring provinces of Lam Dong and Gia Lai have seen less favourable results,” said a trader quoted by Reuters.
Recent data released by Rabobank summarises market trends in recent years and outlines the outlook for the coming years.
According to the Dutch bank, the 2020/21 coffee year saw a very large supply surplus (almost 12.6 million bags).
This was followed by three consecutive years of production deficits – from 2021/22 to 2023/24 – for a cumulative deficit of 14.6 million bags.
In 2024/25, a slight surplus (152,000 bags) was recorded. In 2025/26, the surplus will grow to 1.55 million bags, while a large production surplus of 8.64 million bags is expected for 2026/27.
This trend will push Arabica prices down by about a third by late 2026 as production surplus eases pricing pressure, according to Rabobank experts’ forecasts.
As always, when it comes to coffee, forecasts remain difficult and uncertain. It will therefore be necessary to monitor the market with extreme caution in the coming months, not least because stock levels remain very low in both producing and consuming countries.
In New York, the ICE Arabica certified stocks, although recovering, stand at 443,983 bags: about half of last year’s figure.
According to the European Coffee Federation, green coffee stocks in major coffee ports of Europe amounted to 471,389 tonnes (7,856,483 bags) as of 31 October 2025, down 18,773 tonnes from the end of September and 9.13% from October 2024.
Robusta stocks fell by 15,312 tonnes over the month to 188,548 tonnes. Stocks of Arabica Washed coffee amounted to 149,489 tonnes, down by 8,229 tonnes. Stocks of Arabica Natural coffee, on the other hand, increased (+4,768 tonnes) to 133,352 tonnes.
