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MILAN – Coffee markets recovered last week, with Arabica futures reaching daily highs well above $4 per pound. As the middle of the month approached, New York experienced a new surge, which in just two sessions led to a 7.1% gain on the main contract (December), rising from a low of 373.05 cents on 10 October to 399.65 cents on 14 October, the highest level in almost a month.
The rally continued on Wednesday 15 October, reaching a daily high of 418.50 cents. However, once this peak was reached, profit-taking took over and the session ended down 1.2% at 394.90 cents.
The same scenario played out on Thursday 16th, with the benchmark rising above the 400 cents threshold again, only to then retreat and close slightly lower at 393.80 cents.
The last session of the week saw a recovery: once again, the December contract lost ground after breaching the $4 barrier, but the subsequent decline was less pronounced and it closed up almost 1% at 397.45 cents.
The flurry of news about the weather in Brazil’s Arabica-growing region, where the main flowering of the new crop (2026/27) is underway, continues to affect market sentiment and partly explains the erratic price movements.
Tensions eased somewhat on Thursday when US Trade Representative Jamieson Greer described the outcome of the talks between Secretary of State Rubio and Brazilian Foreign Minister Vieira as ‘very positive’, rekindling hopes that the two countries will soon reach an agreement on tariffs.
Both sides confirmed that a summit between Presidents Trump and Lula would be organised at the earliest possible occasion.
However, the increasingly low level of certified stocks, which fell to 467,110 bags last Friday, is contributing to market instability
Certified stocks come mainly from Mexico (128,270 bags), Nicaragua (55,229 bags), Honduras (54,420 bags), Tanzania (49,993 bags) and Peru (42,365 bags). Brazilian stocks have dwindled to just 26,896 bags.
London followed a different course. The most active contract for January 2026 delivery soared on Thursday 16th to $4,524, its highest level since 16th September, before losing ground on Friday 17th, ending the week at $4,478.
Weather reports from Vietnam, which in this case were positive, contributed to the decline. According to experts, the rain forecast over the weekend in Vietnam’s Central Highlands should in fact support the final stages of the upcoming harvest.
In this regard, a recent survey conducted by Bloomberg News among a panel of seven industry experts on the size of Vietnam’s 2025/26 production gave a median response of 1.76 million tonnes (29.33 million bags), a sharp recovery from last year’s harvest, which was the lowest in four years.
What about the Brazilian harvest? Beyond the considerations above regarding the outcome of the main flowering and subsequent phases, which depend on the amount and pattern of rainfall in the coming weeks, there are those who are moderately optimistic. This is the case of Sucafina.
The Swiss trader says in its latest report that the next crop will likely not be a record for Arabica, but will come close and beat the last two crop estimates by at least 5 million bags
