Share your coffee stories with us by writing to info@comunicaffe.com.
MILAN – Weather developments in the two main producing countries provided an additional boost to the coffee markets in the final session of the week. Following profit-taking on Thursday, prices returned to their highest levels in almost three weeks on Friday, 3 October 2025. In New York, the contract for December delivery increased by 3.4% to reach 390.75 cents, marking its highest point since 17 September. In London, the contract for November delivery closed up 4.7% to end the first week of October at $4,527.
In Brazil, weather reports predict intensifying dry conditions in the Arabica coffee-growing regions, accompanied by above-average temperatures, which could cause heat stress to coffee trees during the crucial flowering phase, currently underway.
Adequate and regular rainfall is essential for the development of the new Arabica crop. Weather patterns are being monitored even more closely this year, as an abundant Arabica harvest in 2026/27 is essential to rebalance the world market, avoid a new production deficit and replenish stocks.
In a recent report, Brazilian broker Thiago Cazarini wrote that good weather could boost production by 20% year-over-year, but the market seems “more inclined into bullish than bearish.”
There is also concern about the situation in Vietnam, where the tail end of Typhoon Bualoi is bringing heavy rains to the Central Highlands, which could damage the crops just a few weeks before the start of the harvest.
La Niña is expected to return in the last quarter of the year
Meanwhile, the return of La Niña is becoming increasingly likely. According to the U.S. Climate Prediction Center (CPC) is a division of the National Weather Service (NWS), there is a 71% probability that the phenomenon will develop between October and December 2025, and a 54% probability that it will last until February 2026.
La Niña typically brings drier weather to South America, which could negatively affect the development of the new Brazilian crop.
However, it should be noted that the phenomenon usually causes excess humidity in Colombia, increasing the risk of pests and diseases such as rust and coffee berry borer.
Brazil set to become the world’s largest Robusta producer
Brazil, by far the world’s largest producer of Arabica coffee, is preparing to become also the world’s leading producer of Robusta coffee. According to a recent report by Rabobank, this prospect is becoming increasingly realistic.
Brazilian Robusta production has grown steadily in recent years and, according to estimates by the Dutch financial group, reached 24.7 million bags this year, compared to 19 million bags in 2020.
Meanwhile, Vietnamese production is expected to rise to around 30 million this year, according to the USDA, as the country recovers from a drop in production in recent years. However, the gap between the two countries is set to narrow further.
Rabobank says that the main driver behind Robusta’s expansion in Brazil is climate change, as the more bitter variety is becoming increasingly valuable due to its higher resistance to heat, drought, and disease.
The report cites data indicating that average temperatures in Brazil’s main coffee-growing regions have risen by between 1.3 and 1.6 degrees over the last 50 years.
Irrigation plays a fundamental role in adaptation strategies: approximately 71% of Brazilian Robusta crops are irrigated and while initial investment costs are significant (around US$15,700 per hectare), the crop delivers nearly 170% higher yields per hectare than Arabica, with payback periods averaging four years, says the report
Another interesting aspect is that Brazil has almost 28 million hectares of degraded pastureland suitable for agricultural conversion, and part of this could also be used to expand Robusta cultivation without deforestation.
According to Conab, coffee cultivation in Brazil covers a total of 2.25 million hectares.
