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MILAN – Coffee futures prices rebounded in the first session of the week. Yesterday, Monday, Aug. 4, prices on both markets rose again driven upwards by the weather in Brazil and the ongoing geopolitical uncertainty. In New York, the contract for September delivery gained 435 points closing at 288.55 cents. In London, the most traded contract for November delivery advanced $79 to settle at $3,338.
According to Somar Meteorology, Minas Gerais received only 31% of the normal amount of rainfall for this time of year last week. There were reports of strong hailstorms affecting farms in late July.
“We always see hailstorms as extremely localized events that can be devastating, but in this case, they affected an estimated 1,500 Ha of coffee farms” writes Sucafina in a recent report. “This accounts for 0.2% of the region’s acreage, so it is a non-factor in light of the total Brazil potential.”
“Continued tightness in the spread between September and December contracts in New York is telling us that there is interest in nearby inventory, specifically the ICE Certified Arabica stocks largely available in Europe,” continues Sucafina.
“With the 50% tariff on Brazil looming, it seems plausible that some of these stocks would have to eventually find their way to the US to supplement the roughly 800 thousand bags per month imports from Brazil that will soon be $1.50 higher for the roaster,” concludes the report.
Many market participants expect the inclusion of coffee in the list of products exempt from duties by the fateful date of January 6.
But should this not happen, notes Pine Agronegócios quoted by Notícias Agrícolas, U.S. buyers could be faced with a a very negative scenario, where they would find Colombia with restricted supply, no other major coffee producing country capable of replacing Brazil and low stocks in both producing and consuming countries, which could be a major bullish factor for the coffee futures market in New York.
Meawhile, Agência Brasil reports that China has authorised 183 new Brazilian coffee companies to export the product to the country.
The announcement was made by the Chinese embassy in Brazil on social media.
The measure is said to be valid for five years and came into force on July 30, the same day that the US signed the order making the tariffs against Brazil official.
A post from last week provides figures for the product on the Chinese market. Net imports of coffee into the country grew by 13,08 thousand tons from 2020 to 2024, and the potential for growth is made clear by the fact that per-capita consumption is 16 cups a year, well below the global average of 240.
According to Cecafé, in the first six months of 2025, coffee exports to the US totaled 3,316,287 60-kilo bags, reports Agência Brasil. While the US ranks first in purchases of the Brazilian product, China ranks tenth. In the same time range, 529,709 60-kilo bags were exported to the Asian country—6.2 times less than the volume sold to the US, concludes the same source.
