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MILAN – After Monday and Tuesday’s declines, coffee futures rose again in midweek trading. Yesterday, Wednesday 8 October, the contract for December delivery in New York gained 2.6% to 385.10 cents, while the contract for November delivery in London rose 2.9% to close at $4,542. The main driver was the low level of certified stocks in New York, which fell to 525,989 bags, a 1.5-year low.
Indonesia prepares for the Eudr and the Free Trade Agreement with the EU
Indonesia exported 206,700 tonnes of coffee (3,445,000 bags) between January and June 2025, according to statistics released by the Ministry of Micro, Small, and Medium Enterprises (MSMEs), which did not provide comparative data for the same period in the first half of 2024.
Bagus Rachman, deputy for medium enterprises at the ministry pointed out that more than 90 percent of plantations managed by smallholder farmers.
The latest USDA report forecasts that Indonesia’s exports in 2025/26 (April-March) will see a further slight recovery to 7.57 million bags, including approximately one million bags of soluble coffee and 70,000 bags of roasted coffee.
In 2024/25, exports amounted to 7.25 million, again according to USDA data. The EU was the main destination market for Indonesian coffee, followed by the US, Egypt, Malaysia, India and Japan.
According to the European Coffee Report from the European Coffee Federation, Indonesia’s green coffee exports to EU27 countries sunk to 45,700 tonnes in 2024 (-33.2% yoy). In 2017, Indonesia was exporting 141,000 tonnes of coffee to EU27 countries, meaning that current export levels are only one third of those reached at that time. Only during the 2022-2024 period, Indonesia reduced its exported to the bloc in 56,500 tonnes.
The Indonesian industry continues to fear the impact of the Eudr, although the possibility of a further postponement is probably helping to ease tensions.
However, the free trade agreement with the EU concluded at the end of September, which provides for the elimination of tariffs on over 98% of goods, opens up important new opportunities. Indonesian coffee will benefit from 0% tariffs once the agreement comes into force in January 2027.
South Korean imports grew strongly in 2024
According to the Korea Customs Service (KCS), imports of coffee in all forms reached a value of $1.24 billion last year, an increase of 13% compared to 2023.
Volume growth was 5.7%, to 194,809 tonnes or 3,246,817 bags. Brazil remains the main origin, with a 21% share by value and 30% by volume, followed by Colombia (15.3%) and Vietnam (15.2%).
In the first eight months of this year, imports grew marginally (+1%) to 136,318 tonnes or 2,271,967 bags. The surge in global coffee prices pushed the value up to 1.17 billion, 31% more than in the same period last year.
The Korean market is characterised by fierce competition, especially in the out-of-home sector, where the coffee shop industry is beginning to show signs of saturation after the rapid growth recorded between 2018 and 2024, a period during which the number of establishments rose from 45,203 to 96,080, before falling to 95,337 in the first quarter of 2025.
