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MILAN – Coffee futures prices soared during the first trading session of the month. On Monday 3 November, the ICE Arabica contract for December delivery gained 3.7% (1,460 points) to close at 406.65 cents, which is the highest price seen in the last two weeks. In London, the ICE Robusta contract for January delivery rose by 3.4% ($153) to settle at $4,693, which is also the highest close since the start of October’s third decade.
This sudden surge was driven by renewed concerns about rainfall patterns in Brazil’s coffee-growing regions and fears over the arrival of Typhoon Kalmaegi, which is expected to make landfall in southern Vietnam between Thursday and Friday, potentially affecting the coffee-growing areas of the Central Highlands.
Last month, Minas Gerais, Brazil’s largest Arabica coffee producer, received only 75% of the normal rainfall for this time of year.
While the situation is expected to improve over the next few weeks, the market remains cautious and volatile as it waits for these forecasts to be confirmed.
Low coffee inventories are also supportive for prices. ICE-Arabica certified stocks fell to a 1.75-year low of 431,481 bags on Monday. ICE Robusta certified stocks fell to a 3.5-month low of 6,053 lots on Monday.
World coffee exports amounted to 11.00 million bags in September 2025, compared with 11.31 million in September 2024, according to the International Coffee Organization.
Exports in coffee year 2024/25 decreased by 0.3% to 138.66 million bags as compared to 139.01 million bags in coffee year 2023/24.
Over the same periods, exports of Arabica totalled 84.14 million bags as compared to 85.28 million bags; whereas Robusta exports amounted to 54.52 million bags as compared to 53.73 million bags.
Meanwhile, exports from the island of Sumatra, Indonesia’s largest production area, are soaring. Government data indicate that shipments in September totalled 666,905 bags, up 38.5% compared to the same month a year ago.
In the first six months of the 2025/26 crop year (April–March), exports totalled 3,499,426 bags — a 121.31% increase compared to the same period last year. Production for CY 2025/26 is estimated at 12 million bags, 85% of which is Robusta coffee.
