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MILAN – In the first winter session (austral winter, of course), fears of frost in Brazil caused coffee futures to surge, with a strong recovery seen yesterday, Monday 23 June 2025. In New York, the September contract gained over 3.6% (+1,150 points) to close 326.55 cents. In London, the September contract soared to $3,904, nearly 4.5% higher than the previous session’s settlement.
Stirring up the markets were weather updates from Brazil, where a cold front of polar air is approaching.
This could bring frost to some areas of Paraná, São Paulo and southern Minas Gerais, although not comparable, according to forecasters, to the winter 2021 events, which caused significant damage to crops.
Analysts expect New York coffee futures to trade within the 320–360 cent range in the near future.
According to Safras & Mercado, 43% of the Brazilian harvest was complete by 18 June. This figure is slightly lower than last year (44%), but higher than the five-year historical average (40%).
As for Robusta, Gil Barabach, analyst at S&M, reports “harvesting operations have progressed at a good pace in the last week, helped by favourable weather conditions”.
The Robusta harvest is 58% complete, compared to 62% last year. It should be noted that this year’s harvest is expected to be a record one.
The Arabica harvest advanced eight percentage points in one week reaching 34% of the estimated total. This is slightly below last year’s figure of 35%, but well above the historical average of 30%
“Overall, this year’s crop profile remains positive compared to last year, with an improvement in terms of coffee screen size,” added Barabach.
Meanwhile, Indian exports are booming. The Coffee Board of India reports that exports in FY2024/25 increased in value by 40.2% to over $1.8 billion. The main destinations included Italy, Germany, Russia, Belgium, the UAE and the US.
