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MILAN – It was another day of declining prices on the coffee futures markets. The contract for July delivery of the Ice Arabica lost 1% yesterday, Thursday, 29 May, to settle at 348.40 cents. July Ice Robusta closed down 0.6 percent at $4,566. Improved production prospects have eased market tensions to some extent, causing prices to fall to their lowest levels in seven weeks in New York and six and a half months in London.
Another bearish factor is the partial replenishment of certified stocks, which nevertheless remain at historically low levels.
In Brazil, harvest operations are ongoing for both Arabica and Robusta coffee.
The Foreign Agricultural Service (FAS) of the US Department of Agriculture (USDA) is optimistic about the upcoming harvest season in Vietnam, forecasting a 6.9% overall recovery in production to 31 million bags. Increased investment in cultivation and replanting over the past two years is expected to boost supply in the near future.
Meanwhile, official statistics from the Vietnam Customs Department show that exports from the beginning of the year to mid-May totalled 736,000 tonnes (12.67 million bags), which is 5.5% less than in the same period last year. However, export earnings are up 56% to $ 4.2 billion.
Domestically, coffee prices in the Central Highlands reversed course on Saturday, falling by VND2,500-3,300 (9.6-13 US cents) per kilogram to VND122,500 (US$4.82) per kilogram in the provinces of Dak Nong, Dak Lak, and Gia Lai, and VND122,000 in Lam Dong.
Agricultural experts forecast that domestic prices may continue to drop to around VND120,000 per kilogram due to the downward trend in global markets. Key drivers behind recent price hikes, such as weather concerns and trade tensions, are showing signs of easing.
A rise in production is also expected in Peru. According to USDA, coffee production in marketing year (MY) 2025/2026 is forecast to rebound by 8% reaching, 4.2 million 60-kg bags.
This growth is attributed to better prices and increased use of inputs such as fertilizers. However, despite improved weather conditions in MY 2024/2025, challenges such as coffee leaf rust and coffee borer infestations continue to persist.
Yields average 721 kg/ha but vary significantly depending on farm management practices. Most farms are small (under 5 ha) and rely on traditional methods like shade-growing, hand-picking, and sun-drying.
Domestic coffee consumption during this period is projected at 300,000 60-kg bags. In MY 2024/2025, total coffee exports reached 3.9 MMT, with the United States remaining the largest market, accounting for 27%of Peru’s total coffee exports.
