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MILAN – Coffee futures prices ended the week downward: in New York, the contract for December delivery fell by 3.1% over the course of last two sessions, closing on Friday 10 October at 373.05 cents – the lowest level in two weeks. In London, the contract for November delivery reached a peak of $4,568 on Thursday 9 October, its highest level since mid-September, before falling back into negative territory (-1.9%) in the final session of the week, settling on Friday at $4,480.
Prices were pushed down by weather forecasts from Brazil, where models predict “significant” rainfall (up to 30 mm) between now and mid-month, which be useful to initiate flowering and set the crop for Brazil 2026/2.
Further downward pressure came from a stronger dollar, with the Brazilian real reaching its lowest level against the greenback in two months.
Meanwhile, the ICE Arabica certified stocks continue to dwindle, falling on Friday 10 October to 509,383 bags, their lowest level in the last year and a half, although still well above the historic lows of three years ago, when stocks fell well below 400,000 bags.
According to Marcelo Moreira, an analyst at Archer Consulting, market trends since the beginning of August have been influenced by weather conditions in the main producing countries of Central and South America and Asia.
In recent weeks, operators have been paying close attention on flowering in Brazil and the end of the typhoon season in Indochina, with two major typhoons (Ragasa and Bualoi) occurring at the end of September, which also hit Vietnam.
The tail end of the cyclones reached the Central Highlands, bringing torrential rains that may have damaged crops just a few weeks before the start of harvesting operations.
According to Moreira, the extent of the damage has not yet been fully ascertained, but judging by the reaction of the London market, it could be significant.
On Thursday 2 and Friday 3 October, the 16th edition of the Scta Coffee Forum & Dinner took place at the Congress Center Basel.
Organised by the Swiss Coffee Trade Association, this annual event brings together the crème de la crème of the industry and of coffee institutions and associations.
Under the theme “Unity in Complexity”, various panels and workshops addressed the most pressing issues in the coffee supply chain.
The focus was on the difficult and uncertain market situation, with consistently high prices and high volatility, logistical problems, financial difficulties and new tariff barriers.
Ample space was also given to issues related to the application of the Eudr (and its possible postponement) and, more generally, to the growing importance of traceability and compliance tools.
Panel discussions, plenary sessions and workshops were led by prominent figures, including the executive director and the head of operations of the ICO, Vanusia Maria Carneiro Nogueira and Hannelore Beerlandt; William (Bill) Murray, President & CEO, National Coffee Association USA (NCA); Marcos Antonio Matos, CEO of Cecafé; Jennifer “Vern” Long, CEO, World Coffee Research (WCR); Krisztina Szalai, Secretary General, SCTA; and Manish Dhawan, President – Green Coffee, Olam.
The inaugural event was attended by a special guest: AMECA, the world’s most advanced humanoid AI robot, who joined on stage to offer a brief look at human–AI collaboration and what it could mean for coffee.
