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MILAN – Coffee futures prices fell for the second straight day both in New York and in London. Yesterday, Tuesday 2 December, the contract for March delivery of the ICE Arabica fell 1.7% to close at 373.45 cents, while January ICE Robusta coffee lost 2.7% to settle at $4,351.
The removal of US tariffs on Brazilian green coffee imports, coupled with the almost certain postponement of the Eudr for another year, has helped to ease tensions in the markets to some extent.
However, market participants continue to closely monitor the weather in Brazil and Vietnam.
News from Brazil remains contradictory. Some sources claim that the main production areas have seen good levels of rainfall across the main coffee growing regions, with climatic models indicating rains to continue for the remainder of December.
Others paint a rather different picture. According to Vicente Zotti, managing partner of Pine Agronegócios, the next Brazilian harvest has already lost over 3 million bags of its production potential.
Minasul’s Operations Manager, Heberson Sastre, points out that in previous years, even with good rainfall, high temperatures hampered grain development.
The situation in Vietnam also appears uncertain. According to Bloomberg, Vietnam is on track to produce its biggest coffee crop in four years.
Nguyen Nam Hai, chairman of the influential Vietnam Coffee and Cocoa Association (Vicofa), maintains his forecast that production in 2025/26 will be 10% higher than the previous season. However, he warns that any more rain in the coming weeks could affect bean quality.
Torrential rain brought by typhoons and tropical depressions has hit production areas in the Central Highlands, including the provinces of Dak Lak and Gia Lai, knocking down trees and raising fears of possible crop damage, just as bean collection started.
Farmers have completed at least 10% of the harvest, Hai said quoted by Bloomberg.
