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MILAN – It was a quieter day for the coffee markets yesterday, Thursday 11 September, with coffee futures prices in both terminals closing with minimal changes. In New York, the contract for December delivery ended down slightly (-80 points) at 386.10 cents. In London, meanwhile, the contract for November delivery gained $44, settling at a weekly high of $4,521.
New weather reports from Brazil eased market tensions, with Climatempo saying rainfall in Brazil’s Minas Gerais region is expected to intensify next week, close to the beginning of the flowering of the new 2026/27 Arabica crop.
According to Gil Barabach, an analyst at Safras & Mercado, next year’s crop could potentially be a record one, given the recurrence of a positive year in the two-year Arabica cycle.
However, before we can talk about a “super crop” – Barabach explained in an online presentation – there needs to be adequate rainfall to support the flowering and favourable weather conditions to accompany the subsequent stages of the growth cycle of the trees.
Weather models for the main coffee-growing regions predict rainfall during the final week of September, which must continue into October for successful flowering.
There is optimism on the Robusta side, where production has reached record levels this year. According to Barabach, the harvest could grow further next year, thanks to new areas coming into production.
Brazil’s last bumper crop was in 2020, estimated by Safras & Mercado at 70 million bags. However, production levels subsequently fell, mainly due to adverse weather conditions, such as droughts and frosts.
An abundant harvest would be essential to rebalance the market and replenish stocks, at least in part.
Meanwhile, IBGE (the Brazilian Institute of Geography and Statistics, an institution of the Federal Government under the Ministry of Planning, Budget and Management), has also lowered its estimate for the recently concluded harvest by 1.4% compared to the previous month, bringing it to 56.8 million bags — 0.6% less than last year’s harvest.
This downward revision affected both Arabica and Robusta production, estimated at 37 million and 19.8 million bags respectively.
Conab officially estimates this year’s harvest at 55.2 million bags, which is an increase of 1.8% compared to the 2024/25 harvest.
