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MILAN – Coffee futures prices climbed again following a partial decline on Tuesday. Yesterday, Wednesday 13 August, saw both markets close in positive territory: in New York, the contract for September delivery of the ICE Arabica rose by 1.4%, reaching 319.60 cents. In London, the November Robusta contract soared to $3,799, up 4.7% in a single session. Moving the market on the Arabica front was news of light frosts affecting the Brazilian coffee belt.
According to StoneX, frosts were reported in the areas of PatrocÃnio, Uberaba, Sacramento, Ituverava, Passos, BambuÃ, Monte Verde, and Campos do Jordão.
There are also reports of frost in several municipalities in Cerrado Mineiro, including Araguari, Monte Carmelo, Sacramento, Araxá, Serra do Salitre, Indianópolis, Ibiá and Campos Altos, as well as in some areas of Alta Mogiana.
Pushing up Robusta prices were Cecafé data showing a further decline in Brazilian conilon coffee exports, as well as reduced Robusta availability in Vietnam, where the new harvest season is still several months away, and in Indonesia, where rainfall is hampering the harvest.
Returning to Brazil, a report by Cepea confirms that the country’s Arabica crop is nearing its end and will finish within the month in most production areas.
According to the Institute’s researchers, yields are disappointing and this scenario confirms that the Arabica crops were weakened by a low volume of rain and high temperatures during the autumn and winter of 2024.
The situation was made even worse by low rainfall levels between mid-February and mid-March.
Some of the agents consulted by Cepea believe that Brazil’s production figures for this year will be revised downward in the coming months.
According to a report by I. & M. Smith, warmer-than-average sea surface temperatures in the tropical Atlantic Ocean and Caribbean Seas could bring about an accentuated Atlantic storm season in the coming months.
Traditionally and so long as these storms weaken in both momentum and wind speed away from landfall, would bring useful rain ahead of the main new crop Arabica harvests in Central America.
The new October 2025 to September 2026 new crop harvest season for Central America and Mexico coffee producers set to begin harvest in lower lying areas around mid to end October that should gradually increase as the ripe harvest pace moves into peak through December this year, concludes the report.
