Coffee futures prices reach their highest levels since June, London surges over 6% in a single session

MILAN – The rally in the coffee futures markets continues. Since the beginning of the month, the ICE Arabica contract for December delivery has risen by more than a quarter (25.8%), reaching a new peak of 349.05 cents yesterday (Tuesday 19 August, 2025), the highest level since 10 June. In London, the ICE Robusta contract for November delivery has risen by almost 30% over the same period, closing yesterday at $4,268 — the highest price since 13 June — gaining almost 6.2% over Monday.

The latest COT Report from the ICE Arabica has seen the Non-Commercial Speculative sector marginally increase their net long position by 4.09% over the week of trade leading up to Tuesday 12th August 2025  to register a new long position of 16,977 lots.

The Managed Money Fund increased their net long position by 4.70% to a long position of 22,466 lots. The Index Fund sector increased their net long position by 7.45% to register a new net-long position of 33,926 lots.

The latest COT Report from the ICE Robusta has seen the Speculative Managed Money Sector decrease their net short position by 27.38% over the week of trade leading up to Tuesday 12th August 2025 to register a new net short position of 4,118 lots.

The situation remains extremely unstable on all fronts. Starting with the weather, with frosts occurring last week in some areas of the Brazilian coffee belt.

As reported last week, the last blast of the Brazilian winter brought scattered frosts to some areas of Minas Gerais and São Paulo last week. According to StoneX, the municipalities of Patrocínio, Uberaba, Sacramento, Passos, Bambuí and Monte Verde in Minas Gerais, as well as Ituverava and Campos do Jordão in São Paulo, were affected.

There are also reports of frosts in various municipalities in the Cerrado Mineiro (Araguari, Monte Carmelo, Sacramento, Araxá, Serra do Salitre, Indianópolis, Ibiá and Campos Altos) and in limited areas of Alta Mogiana.

The damage, which has also been confirmed by reports from local associations, appears to be localised and limited and should not impact the 2025/26 coffee crop which is for the most part already harvested.

Somar Meteorologia also reports that there has been no rainfall in Minas Gerais over the past week. On the political front, Brazilian Agriculture Minister Carlos Fávaro has reiterated his belief that coffee could be exempted from the 50% tariffs imposed by the Trump’s Administration.

However, this statement continues to find no confirmation, even unofficial, from Washington. On the fundamentals front, all eyes remain on Brazil, where the harvest is coming to an end.

While the Robusta crop appears to be in line with high initial expectations, the situation for Arabica is increasingly disappointing, with various field reports confirming lower than expected yields.

Meanwhile, Cooxupé, world’s largest coffee cooperative, reports that, as of 15 August, its members had completed 86.1% of this year’s harvest (mostly natural processed Arabica coffee), equal to 5.25 million bags out of a total forecast of 6.1 million.

Breaking it down by region, the harvest was 88.9% complete in Sul de Minas, 82.3% in Cerrado Mineiro, 90% in Matas de Minas and 77.5% in São Paulo.