Share your coffee stories with us by writing to info@comunicaffe.com.
MILAN – Both coffee futures markets saw a week of partial recovery. In New York, the main contract for September delivery closed down 1.2% on Friday, July 18, at 303.60 cents, but up nearly 6% from the previous week’s close of 286.50 cents on Friday, July 11. September ICE Robusta coffee settled 1.1% higher on Friday at $3.348, a 4.1% increase over the previous week.
The fundamental picture remains largely unchanged, but the arrival of the new Brazilian crop on the market is helping to ease supply tensions.
According to Safras & Mercado, 77% of the Brazilian 2025/26 harvest was complete as of 16 July, an increase of 8% from the previous week.
This exceeds both last year’s figure (74%) and the five-year average (69%). S&M estimates this year’s harvest at 65.51 million bags, of which 40.46 million are Arabica and approximately 25 million are Robusta.
Meanwhile, the coffee industry is watching with concern the 50% tariffs imposed by the Trump administration on all imports from Brazil, due to come into effect, barring any last-minute changes, on 1 August.
US traders and roasters are racing against time to import as much Brazilian coffee as possible before that date. It is expected that the tariffs will lead to further price increases in the US retail market.
Some US importers have already updated their wholesale listing prices including the 50% additional charge for any shipment arriving after August 1.
Simao Pedro de Lima, president of Expocacer, told Reuters that no export deals have been closed with U.S. buyers after the Trump announcement.
Traders and analysts are already predicting, if the duties are confirmed, a redefinition of the world coffee trade: Brazil will export mainly to Europe and Asia, while the US will import more coffee from Africa and Latin America.
In the meantime, the US industry is lobbying hard for coffee to be included on the list of products exempt from tariffs. Leading the way is the National Coffee Association, the largest industry association, which has declined to comment on the matter.
