Saturday 13 April 2024
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Coffee futures markets seen as heading down by year’s end

According to a new poll conducted among 10 traders and analysts, the price of Arabica coffee on the New York market will fall to 165 cents at the end of 2024, a decrease of 9% compared to the previous year

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MILAN – Coffee futures markets saw a recovery in the week between February and March. In New York, the main contract for May delivery lost 105 points in the first session of the month, still closing positive by 3 cents, compared to the previous Friday. London began the month on the rise: ICE Robusta’s May contract posted a $48 gain, reaching a weekly high of 3,143 dollars.

New export data from Honduras pressured Arabica prices, which grew by 26% in February, reaching a volume of 932,678 bags. Shipments from Central America’s largest producer and exporter rose 26% in February to 932,678 bags. Honduras is also the main origin for ICE Arabica’s certified stocks.

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Further downward pressure came from improved weather conditions in Brazil as well as a new estimate from StoneX, which anticipates a new 4.2% rebound in the next Brazilian harvest, to 67 million bags.

Coffee futures markets: London is still receiving support from negative export data issued by Asia’s main Robusta producers

According to provisional data from the General Institute of Statistics, Vietnam’s coffee exports were 20% down in February at 160 thousand tonnes.

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This decline follows a 67.4% increase recorded in January, when shipments reached 238,266 tons.

Volumes shipped by the island of Sumatra, Indonesia’s biggest production area, also sank by 78.7% year-on-year in January, show Government data.

According to a new poll conducted by Reuters among 10 traders and analysts, the price of Arabica coffee on the New York market will fall to 165 cents at the end of 2024, a decrease of 9% compared to the previous year.

Robusta futures will end the year at $2,600, down 14%. Poll participants are convinced that prices will be put under pressure by a more favorable supply outlook emerging for the coming year.

According to the median forecast of the poll, the world coffee market will shift from a modest surplus of just 0.6 million, expected for 2023/24, to a more significant production surplus of 3 million bags in 2024/25.

Also in 2024/25, the Brazilian harvest will grow to 69.5 million, from 66.1 in 2023/24. Vietnamese production is also expected to recover, increasing by 1.5 million to 29.5 million.

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