Thursday 13 June 2024
  • La Cimbali

Coffee futures markets: New York nears again the $2 mark, London rebounds on supply uncertainties

Dealers cited funds switching to long from short position on ICE, falling certified stocks and reduced exports from origins as supportive for coffee futures. In March, registered coffee production in Colombia, the world’s largest producer of mild washed Arabicas, was 799,000 60-kg bags, down 13% from the 914,000 bags produced in the same month of 2022. Exports fell 19% to 906,000 60-kg bags of green coffee from over 1.1 million bags sold abroad in the same month of 2022

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MILAN – Coffee futures markets were again on the upside in the first session of the week driven mainly by supply uncertainties. The Ice Arabica contract for July delivery surged almost 4% to 199.05 cents per lb, after having reached an intraday high of 199.40 cents. The front month for May delivery broke the $2 mark to close at 201 cents.

The Ice Robusta contract for July delivery bounced back to finish the day at $2,370, up $26 from last Friday. The London market hit an 11-1/2 year high of $2,401 last week.

Dealers cited funds switching to long from short position on ICE, falling certified stocks and reduced exports from origins as supportive for coffee futures.

The latest Commitment of Traders (COT) report from the New York Arabica market has seen the Non-Commercial Speculative sector switch their net short position within the market over the week of trade leading to Tuesday 11th April to register a new net long position of 10,907 lots.

According to traders, this net long position has most likely been increased further following the period of mixed but overall firmer trade that has followed.

Last week’s COT report from the London Robusta coffee market has seen the Speculative Managed Money Sector increase their net long position by 21.08% over the week of trade leading to Tuesday 11th April to new net long position of 32,402 lots.

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In March, registered coffee production in Colombia, the world’s largest producer of mild washed Arabicas, was 799,000 60-kg bags, down 13% from the 914,000 bags produced in the same month of 2022.

Year-to-date (January-March) production showed a slight drop of 1% to 2.69 million bags from the 2.71 million bags produced in the same period last year. In the last 12 months (April 2022-March 2023), production fell 8% to almost 11.1 million bags from just over 12 million a year earlier.

So far this coffee year (October 2022-March 2023), production topped 5.6 million bags, down 10% from the 6.2 million bags produced in the same previous period.

In March, exports fell 19% to 906,000 60-kg bags of green coffee from over 1.1 million bags sold abroad in the same month of 2022. Year-to-date exports reached 2.7 million bags, down 15% from the 3.1 million bags exported in the same previous period.

In the last 12 months, exports fell 10% to 10.9 million bags from the 12.1 million bags exported a year earlier. So far this coffee year, exports reached 5.5 million bags, down 14% from the 6.4 million bags shipped abroad in the same previous period.

CIMBALI

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