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MILAN – Yesterday, Thursday 10 July, coffee futures markets moved in opposite directions, with New York recovering and London falling further. The Ice Arabica main contract for September delivery gained 375 points (+1.3%), closing at 1-week high of 287.80 cents.
In contrast, September ICE Robusta coffee futures fell by $150 (4.3%) to settle at $3,320 — its lowest level since March last year.
Pushing Arabica upward was the Trump administration’s announcement of 50% tariffs on imports from Brazil, which threatens to create supply problems for the US industry and raise considerably US retail prices.
Further driving Robusta futures down was Vietnam’s export data, which grew 4.1% in the first half of 2025 to 943,000 tonnes or 15.72 million bags.
Important statistical updates also came from Brazil, where the IBGE (Brazilian Institute of Geography and Statistics) increased its forecast for this year’s crop by 4% from the previous month, estimating it at 57.5 million bags — an increase of 0.8% from last year.
This marks a significant change in direction for the institution, which is dependent from the Ministry of Economy in BrasÃlia.
In fact, IBGE had distinguished itself in recent months by making rather pessimistic forecasts, even though other sources had begun to revise their estimates upwards since March.
Specifically, IBGE now forecasts an Arabica crop of 37.5 million bags, which is 0.8% higher than the June estimate, but still 6.2% lower than the 2024/25 crop, mainly due to the off-year of the biennial production cycle of trees in the majority of Arabica growing regions.
In contrast, there was a sharp upward revision in the Robusta crop estimate (+10.8% from the June estimate), which is now seen at 20 million bags — 17.3% more than the 2024/25 crop.
Favourable weather conditions and significant investment in fertiliser and agricultural practices, driven by high prices, make this record Robusta production possible.
