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MILAN – Uncertainty over general and specific market fundamentals led to high volatility in coffee futures, which saw significant highs and lows this week. On Monday, New York‘s July contract returned above the psychological level of 4 dollars per pound, closing at 410.05 cents. The Tuesday 29th session was characterised by a fairly wide range, with the benchmark fluctuating between a low of 396.70 cents and a high of 418.90 cents, closing the day 2.5% lower at 399.80 cents.
On Wednesday, 30th April, the range was narrower, with the benchmark contract closing slightly above the $4 mark at 400.75 cents. Yesterday’s session, Thursday 1 May, saw further sharp declines.
The main contract opened at 399.05 and stayed constantly below 400 cents, eventually losing 1,610 points (-4%) to close at 384.65 cents.
London coffee futures began the week with two consecutive sessions of declines, taking the July contract to $5,298 on Tuesday the 29th. Wednesday’s partial recovery (+1.3%) was followed by heavy losses (-4.5%) in yesterday’s session, which closed at $5,126.
Yesterday’s sharp declines were attributed by analysts to fears that the new baseline 10% tariffs imposed by the White House could raise the cost of imported raw materials and negatively impact consumption in the US, the world’s largest consumer market after the European Union.
The National Coffee Association of the U.S.A. (NCA) recently appealed to President Trump to exempt green coffee imports from tariffs.
The request was well received by Trump’s administration, the Association’s CEO Bill Murray said last week during an industry event in Brazil’s Sao Paulo state.
A new report published by the United States Department of Agriculture’s (USDA) Global Agricultural Information Network (GAIN) estimates Guatemalan production for the 2024/25 crop year at 3.53 million bags, up slightly (+3.2%) from the previous year. In 2025/26, production will remain stable at 3.54 million, of which 3.21 million will be for export.
