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MILAN – In New York, Arabica coffee futures ended the week on Friday 2nd May with a partial consolidation at 385.40 cents (75 cents higher), 3.6% lower than the previous Friday. Strong gains were posted by ICE Robusta coffee futures in London, where the main contract gained $165 (+3.2%) to close at $5,291, still 2.3% lower than the week before. According to analysts, the trend in New York remains bullish.
Technical analysis of recent trends in cocoa and orange juice futures suggests that Arabica futures could similarly break through the all-time highs reached last February and break through the 470 cent barrier, possibly even pushing into the $5 area.
Meanwhile, open interest fell by over 18.3% from 176,927 contracts on March 31 to 144,530 contracts on April 21 as the futures contracts rolled from May to July. Profit-taking likely caused the open interest metric to decline.
On the fundamentals front, the weather evolution in Brazil continues to keep traders on their toes. According to financial services provider Michael J Nugent, players remain focused on the rainfall trend, which is crucial for the outcome of the next harvest.
Contributing to the bullish tension could be the depreciation of the greenback. The dollar index fell from over 110 in January 2025 to below 98 on April 21.
At the same time, there are fears that higher tariffs would boost coffee prices and dampen demand in the U.S. Several global commodity importers, including Starbucks, Hershey, and Mondelez International, said the baseline 10% tariff imposed on imports by the Trump administration would raise prices and further pressure sales volumes.
Colombia’s exports to the US are accelerating. In the first quarter of 2025, Colombia exported a total of 3.59 million bags of coffee in all forms, an increase of 20.1% compared to the same period in 2024. The export value was $1.315 billion, an increase of 64.5% over the previous year.
The United States confirmed its position as Colombia’s main market, with a volume of 1.44 million bags, 30.7% higher than last year. The U.S. was followed by Germany (+76.3%), Canada (+19.6%) and Belgium (+15.4%).
The US Department of Agriculture‘s Foreign Agricultural Service (FAS) has published its new annual report on the coffee sector in India. Production for the 2025/26 crop year is expected to fall slightly to 6.05 million bags, down from 6.2 million bags in 2024/25.
A dry spell during January and February, followed by strong winds and excessive pre-monsoon rains in March and May, is expected to negatively impact yields.
Robusta production will decrease by around 100,000 bags to 4.7 million. The Arabica crop will fall by 50,000 bags to 1.35 million.
FAS Mumbai cut its 2024/25 export estimate by more than 300,000 bags to 6.207 million, of which 3.7 million will be green coffee and 2.3 million soluble. A further reduction is expected for 2025/26, bringing total exports to just under 6 million bags.
