Tuesday 23 July 2024
  • La Cimbali

Coffee futures fly to new highs on weather woes, uncertain supply prospects in Brazil and Vietnam

Weather conditions in Brazil and Vietnam remained at the forefront of traders' concerns and continued to dictate sentiment. Of particular concern is the situation in Minas Gerais, Brazil's main Arabica producing state, where the amount of rainfall has been barely a quarter of the normal level for this time of year. The drought of recent months continues to fuel negative forecasts in Vietnam. Volcafe predicts serious consequences for the Robusta crop, which could fall to its lowest level in 13 years

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MILAN – Robusta coffee futures reached new highs on Monday: London rallied again in the first session of the week, marking its third consecutive session in the black. Yesterday, the contract for September delivery posted a new strong rebound, gaining $163 (+3.9%) to a new high of $4,348 (intraday at $4,390).

September Arabica coffee futures in New York gained 545 points to close at 234.40 cents, the highest level since the third decade of June.

Weather conditions in Brazil and Vietnam remained at the forefront of traders’ concerns and continued to dictate sentiment. Of particular concern is the situation in Minas Gerais, Brazil’s main Arabica producing state, where the amount of rainfall has been barely a quarter of the normal level for this time of year.

The Brazilian government has released its preliminary figures for green coffee exports in June, which totalled 3,387,967 bags, up 46.6% on the same month last year. Cecafé will release its monthly export figures on Wednesday.

The U.S. National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) said that, despite recent rain, some coffee producers in Central America still face a moisture deficit following a drought at the start of the season.

The situation is also difficult in Central America. Despite the recent rains, some coffee producers still face a moisture deficit following a drought at the start of the season, according to a report from US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA).

The drought of recent months continues to fuel negative forecasts in Vietnam. Volcafe predicts serious consequences for the Robusta crop, which could fall to its lowest level in 13 years.

The Swiss trader expects a global Robusta deficit of 9 million bags this year and a further deficit, the fourth in a row, of 4.6 million in 2024/25.

Meanwhile, in Indonesia, the Robusta harvest season is slowly getting underway, with production expected to rebound from last year’s sharp decline, albeit below recent historical averages.

Good news comes from Ethiopia, where the Coffee and Tea Authority has released its final export figures for the fiscal year, which runs from 8 July to 7 July the following year.

Exports in June totalled 46,000 tonnes, well above the target set for the month.

This brings the total for the 2023/24 fiscal year to 298,500 tonnes or 4,975,000 bags, valued at USD 1.43 billion.

Compared to 2022/23, Ethiopian exports increased by 20 per cent in volume and 7.5 per cent in value, the authority said in the release.

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