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MILAN – Coffee futures saw sharp declines yesterday, Tuesday 23 September, reaching both one-month lows. The ICE Arabica contract for December delivery lost 1,720 points (-4.7%) to close at 350.15 cents. London was also down – the ICE Robusta contract for November delivery fell by 3.8%, ending the day at $4,118.
This shift into negative territory was triggered by weather reports from Brazil indicating that rains in Minas Gerais are set to continue throughout the week, which will favour the start of flowering of the new harvest.
There are also growing hopes for an agreement that could ease U.S. tariffs on Brazil’s coffee exports, after President Trump said he would soon meet with Brazilian President Lula da Silva.
As Bloomberg notes, US tariffs are prompting Brazilian producers and traders to remain cautious, while shipments to the US already showed a significant decline in August. Meanwhile, certified ICE Arabica stocks fell further yesterday (23 September) to 615,903 bags, down 27,438 from the previous day.
Most of the stocks come from Mexico (168,806 bags), Nicaragua (70,514 bags), Honduras (70,289 bags) and Brazil (60,136 bags).
The latest Commitment of Traders report the Ice Arabica has seen the Non-Commercial Speculative sector increase their net long position by 13.86% over the week of trade leading up to Tuesday 16th September 2025 to register a new long position of 25,665 lots, which is the equivalent of 7,275,914 bags.
This net long position has most likely been decreased, following the period of mixed but overall softer trade that has since followed, according to I. & M. Smith. The Commercial sector held 70,634 lots or the equivalent of 20,024,426 bags net short position on the day, an increase of 9.06% on last.
In the same report from the New York arabica coffee market, the shorter term in Nature Managed Money Fund increased their net long position by 11.17% to register a new long position at 40,718 lots.
The longer term in nature, Index Fund sector of this market increased their net long position by 3.84% to register a new net-long position of 41,722 lots on the day.
According to an analysis by Eduardo Carvalhaes, an analyst at broker Escritório Carvalhaes, the market will continue to be characterised by strong fluctuations and volatility in the near future, remaining vulnerable to speculation.
“We do not have sufficient stocks in either producing or consuming countries. The balance between production and global demand is likely to remain precarious,” said Carvalhaes, adding that the climate will be key in determining the size of Brazil’s next harvest, which will be more abundant than this year’s, ‘but it will not be a bumper harvest.’
