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MILAN – Coffee futures prices ended mixed in the last session of the week. The ICE Arabica main contract for December delivery fell by 1.7% on Friday 24 October, to settle at 403 cents, while on ICE Robusta, the most traded contract for January delivery contract closed up $36 at $4,557. Compared to the previous Friday (17 October), New York gained 1.4% and London 1.8%.
Improved weather conditions in Brazil’s coffee belt helped to dampen the rally in the Arabica market, which last week approached the historic highs of last February.
Certified stocks on the New York market fell further on Friday to 447,773 bags, most of which (395,123 bags) are stored in Europe and consist mainly of coffee from Mexico, Honduras, Nicaragua and Tanzania.
COT (Commitment of Traders) data is still unavailable, as its release has been suspended due to the US government shutdown.
Still on the subject of politics, the risk of further punitive sanctions by Washington against Colombia, the US’s second largest coffee supplier after Brazil, would be absolutely detrimental to the US roasters, as noted in Sucafina’s weekly report.
If the US were to announce an additional punitive tariff on Colombia and not exempt coffee from this tariff, the market would likely break the previous highs of 425 US cents/lb, says the report.
However, if the tariff announcement can be delayed or coincide with potential negotiations on eliminating the punitive tariff on Brazil, the market will likely calm down to below $4, conclude Sucafina.
The Presidents of the US and Brazil are reported to have held a positive meeting at the ASEAN summit to address recent US tariff hikes on Brazilian goods, reportedly agreeing to begin immediate negotiations aimed at resolving trade tensions.
Meanwhile, the average U.S. price of a pound of ground coffee hit $9.14 in September, a 3% increase from the August average of $8.87 and 41% higher than in September 2024, according to U.S. government figures.
Coffee prices have been increasing sharply since the start of this year.
The consumer price index, which measures a broader sample of all coffee products, including instant coffee, showed U.S. coffee prices up 19% from September 2024 and flat compared to August.
